Weekly Bars

FOREX_Technical_Analysis_USDJPY_March-May_2010_Lows_of_Interest_above_88.00_body_usdjpy.png, FOREX Technical Analysis: USD/JPY March-May 2010 Lows of Interest above 88.00

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

FOREXAnalysis: “The USDJPY has made immediate progress from its long term inverse head and shoulders break. Near term, the move is stretched as evidenced by a daily RSI of 87 on Tuesday! The traditional h&s measuring technique yields an objective of about 9362. Currently testing steep upward sloping channel resistance and lows from late 2008 / early 2009, a pullback is expected soon. 8565-8600 is initial support.” The late 2008 / early 2009 lows have given way and the next level that may produce a reaction would be lows in March and May 2010 (including the flash crash low) at 8813/24. 8853 is the 161.8% retracement of the 8417-7712 decline.

FOREXTrading Strategy: I wrote yesterday that I’m a seller below 8650 or above 8800. 8650 wasn’t reached and price is just shy of 8800 as I type. I wouldn’t do anything before NFP. The market is considered extreme by many measures and a sharp drop is probably around the corner but it could come from higher levels. Bottom line – I want to short but I need an objective setup to do so. Once (if) that setup occurs, I’ll scream about it from the heavens.

LEVELS: 8617 8676 8710 8814 8853 8896