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FOREX Technical Analysis: USD/JPY Trying to Hold to 4th Wave Support

FOREX Technical Analysis: USD/JPY Trying to Hold to 4th Wave Support

2012-11-14 01:21:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Daily Bars

FOREX_Technical_Analysis_USDJPY_Trying_to_Hold_to_4th_Wave_Support_body_usdjpy.png, FOREX Technical Analysis: USD/JPY Trying to Hold to 4th Wave Support

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

FOREXAnalysis: If USD/JPY weakness is a 4th wave, then price needs to stay above 7982 (allowing for a spike is ok). The response just below 7927 (and right at estimated 7907 support) is a good start. Keep in mind that 4th waves are often more complex than 2nd waves thus we could be in for sideways trading for several weeks too.

FOREXTrading Strategy: I’m wary of trading this from the long side for many reasons including the failed break at above 8061, bearish implications from the S&P (over the course of November…at least), and a high in place on day 2 of the month (opening range implications). There are plenty of interpretations that allow for weakness and this count may very well be wrong. It’s worth keeping in mind, but there are far better setups that warrant action. Other Yen crosses have also reacted strongly at important long term resistance and COT positioning is consistent with turns towards Yen strength.

LEVELS: 7892 7907 7927 7975 8003 8047

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