Japanese Yen Hits 3rd Standard Deviation Band
240 Minute Bars
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
The USDJPY reversed just shy of the 11/29 high (7828) and 200 day average (7835) today. Price did reach the 3rd standard deviation band on the daily (20 day lookback) for just the 25th time since 2000 and first time since the October 31 intervention. A simple back test shows that shorting the USDJPY at the close of the day in which it reached the 3rd std. dev band (and closing it 5 days later) would have yielded 10 wins and 6 losses (there are not 25 trades because the 5 day holding period results in overlapping days). The wins averaged 96.5 pips and the losses 112.6 pips. Structurally, respect the potential for one more high and a test of the November high at 7828.
Bottom Line - flat