US Dollar / Japanese Yen 05-12
After last week’s extraordinary decline and bounce, I want to take a look at the weekly in order to gain perspective. The decline from the 2007 high is viewed as a leading diagonal. Leading diagonals are often followed by sharp second wave advances (sometimes as much as 78.6%). The 61.8% and 78.6% levels are 10915 and 11577. Trading above 9500 would put the pair back on track towards those levels. HOWEVER, looking back nearly a decade, there have only been 4 instances of a weekly range as large as last week’s range. In each case, a sharp retracement gave way to yet additional weakness. As such, traders may want to think about shorting against the top of the range (9500).
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream. Send requests to receive his reports via email to email@example.com.
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