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USDCHF Bearish for Time Being

USDCHF Bearish for Time Being

2012-08-24 11:59:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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Daily Bars

eliottWaves_usd-chf_body_Picture_11.png, USDCHF Bearish for Time Being

Prepared by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

The USDCHF has traded so closely to the EURUSD, in the sense that, since September 6, 2011, the EUR and the CHF have held a +0.94 daily correlation. Essentially, the USDCHF has traded as an inverse to the EURUSD. Accordingly, we find that the USDCHF remains bearish for the time being (as we find the EURUSD is bullish for the time being). The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement has held thus far on the recent decline; and should this level hold today, we will likely need a EUR-positive catalyst to force a thrust through. Near-term resistance comes in at 0.9600/10, 0.9645/50, 0.9670, and 0.9700. Interim support comes in at 0.9560/65, 0.9500, and 0.9450/55.

Gold Triange Breakout Objectives at 1685, 1720

Daily Bars

eliottWaves_usd-chf_body_Picture_14.png, USDCHF Bearish for Time Being

Prepared by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

The descending trendline off of the September 6, 2011 and February 29, 2012 highs (coincidentally major dates for the Euro-zone crisis: the day the Swiss National Bank implemented the EURCHF peg at 1.2000; and the day the European Central Bank implemented LTRO2, respectively) broke yesterday, suggesting that the consolidation Gold has been in for the past 11-months may be over. Although the daily RSI is showing signs of technical exhaustion, our bias for precious metals has become bullish. A weekly close above 1660 today would be bullish going forward. Using the near-term channel, off of the May 16 and July 12 lows, with the topside parallel taken at the June 6 high, near-term resistance comes in at 1680/85. Congestion is likely into 1700/20. Support comes in at 1640/45 (200-DMA), 1610, and 1585.

Crude Rejected at 1Q Swing Lows

Daily Bars

eliottWaves_usd-chf_body_Picture_13.png, USDCHF Bearish for Time Being

Prepared by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

Crude Oil’s advance of nearly 15% off of the late-June lows has reached a point of technical exhaustion, with the daily RSI reaching overbought levels as price entered former zones of consolidation/swing lows, from back in the first quarter and early-November 2011. Accordingly, a pullback is expected to materialize. Near-term support comes in at 92.50, 89.50, and 86.80. Resistance comes in at 98.25 (August high), 100.90/101.00 (April swing lows), and 103.25/30.

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