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USD Technical Analysis: DXY Outlook in the Days Ahead

USD Technical Analysis: DXY Outlook in the Days Ahead

Paul Robinson,
What's on this page

USD Technical Outlook

  • US Dollar Index (DXY) bouncing but may have some more downside before finding support
  • Overall the broader trend is higher, so that could make any more weakness short-lived

USD Technical Analysis: DXY Outlook in the Days Ahead

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been weak the past few weeks since hitting a feverish pitch in sentiment. The selling has been steady, but not extremely intense. Given the broader trend higher we could see strength soon, but not before another small leg lower perhaps.

The minor swing-low formed on May 5 at 10235 was broken just recently, and while not viewed as significant, it could nevertheless act as resistance on this bounce. A turn down from that point or sooner would likely bring into play the 101 area.

Whether we have seen the worst of the decline or have a little more room to go, looking for the USD to at the very least make a strong attempt to reassert itself at some time in the not-too-distant future. This makes shorting at these levels potentially tricky without seeing some type of clear signaling on a failed attempt to rally.

Looking at the longer-term picture, some time spent oscillating sideways could do the DXY some good for building a base from which is can continue to power higher. If this is the case it could take a good several weeks before real buying comes in.

For now, in wait-and-see mode until a clearer picture presents itself. A strong reaction of the 101 area may set up would-be longs for an entry. Fresh shorts have lost their appeal on this end, while existing shorts may want to implement some type of trailing stop strategy

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.