USDOLLAR and NFP; Does it Matter?
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
-“The USDOLLAR dropped sharply into a line that has been support at many important lows since the all-time low in 2011. As long as the line holds (along with the 200 day average…magenta line), the sideways trade of the last 6 months should be viewed in a bullish context (although at resistance today (10/1)). If this technical confluence (slope and 200 DMA) fails, then the first important correction since the USDOLLAR broke out in September 2014 is underway and the pain felt would be severe.” Seasonal tendencies are bullish into late November and then turn bearish.
-The colored bars are NFP days in 2015. I show this to drive home the point that there is nothing important to glean from NFP price action itself. Sometimes NFP is reversed and sometimes it isn’t. Regardless of econ data, I’ll expect resistance if the market trades up to the lines that were resistance in Jan-Feb, support in March and Apr, and resistance again in May. Until then, trade the range (because that’s what it is!).
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