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NZD/USD Rally Feels Tired Up Here

NZD/USD Rally Feels Tired Up Here

2013-04-03 22:23:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Daily Bars

eliottWaves_nzd-usd_body_nzdusd.png, NZD/USD Rally Feels Tired Up Here

Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0

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FOREXAnalysis: The recent rally brings some clarity to the recent NZDUSD pattern. The advance from the 3/13 low now consists of 5 waves, and perhaps as wave C of a flat from the 3/4 low. The ‘tell’ that the pattern is a flat (and therefore corrective rather than the beginning of a new rally) is the 3 wave decline from the 3/6 high. A 3 wave move rarely completes the larger move and is therefore viewed as part of an ongoing correction. Those familiar with my webinars also know that I view the closes of important days as support and resistance. Today’s high isn’t even 4 pips above the close of the 2/15 reversal day (and high so far for 2013). Near term resistance extends to the December high at .8475. Another interesting tidbit; the 2012 high (up until December) was made in February (2/29) and the secondary or lower high was made in April (4/13).

FOREXTrading Strategy: Still like AUDUSD short better since AUDUSD has led (AUDUSD topped on 1/10, NZDUSD topped on 2/15, AUDUSD bottomed on 3/4, NZDUSD bottomed on 3/13), but if today’s high can hold for a few days then would have a short setup nonetheless.

LEVELS: .8220 .8303 .8367 .8444 .8488 .8533

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