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GBPUSD Primed for Retest of 1.5900

GBPUSD Primed for Retest of 1.5900

2012-08-30 13:35:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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4-Hour Bars

eliottWaves_gbp-usd_body_Picture_5.png, GBPUSD Primed for Retest of 1.5900

Prepared by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

The pair has trended higher, with the GBPUSD riding its 50-SMA on the 4-hour chart as support before finding support in the 1.5770/1.5790 area on Tuesday. As I wrote earlier in the week “Whereas RSI dropped to 36.58 yesterday on the 4-hour chart, the last time RSI was this low, the GBPUSD traded in the 1.5500s. Likewise, last time price was at this level (1.5793), the RSI was at 71.59. Through and through, this is a bullish development.”

Thus, the rebound could be representing a final push higher before the next leg lower. Key levels for the near-term are 1.5880/1.5900 to the upside and 1.5770/90 to the downside; we are continuing to become overextended on shorter-term charts, suggesting that another failure at 1.5900 could lead to profit taking before further bullish price action. A daily close below 1.5770/90 over the coming days should lead to a drop into 1.5700/20. Beyond that, support comes in at 1.5635/40 (last week’s low), and 1.5625 (ascending trendline support off of August 6 and August 10 lows). A daily close above 1.5900 points towards 1.5985.

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