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Euro Holding Trendline-Large Range Provides Reference Points

Euro Holding Trendline-Large Range Provides Reference Points

2011-09-07 15:55:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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300 Minute Bars

eliottWaves_eur-usd_body_eurusd.png, Euro Holding Trendline-Large Range Provides Reference Points

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

The simple truth is that there is evidence to support both sides for EURUSD (always is). From an EW perspective, I don’t see much clarity. The decline from 14548 is impulsive but possibly wave c of a flat as everything into the July low is better counted as corrective. What’s more, recent weakness has stalled at a former resistance line and the May low. Sentiment is incredibly negative (today’s WSJ front page headline is ‘Euro Woes…’) but no one likes the USD either so that’s a wash. But fundamentals tend to line up during 3rd waves and being long and wrong here would be more wrong than being short and wrong. If the larger trend has turned down and a break is around the corner, a pop near term into 14200 seems in order if only to correct the sharp drop from 14548. Play the range until it breaks (a wise man once said ‘act on the temporary, it may become the permanent’).

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Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forex Stream. A graduate of Bucknell University, he holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation from the Market Technician Association. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.  Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.

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