News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here:
  • #DJIA futures eyeing a retest of the February record-high (29595.3) after breaking above Falling Wedge resistance A daily close above the January low (28130.2) could signal the resumption of the primary uptrend extending from the March doldrums $DJI #DowJones #WallStreet
  • @DailyFXTeam Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (+0.32%) S&P 500 (+0.35%) Nasdaq 100 (+0.37%) [delayed] -BBG
  • #Market Snapshot $AUDUSD and $EURUSD drifting from session-highs as the haven-associated $JPY attempts to claw back lost ground. #SP500 futures, #Gold and #crudeoil all moving higher while the #ASX200 struggles to penetrate key resistance at 6,000
  • Join @DanielGMoss's #Webinar at 10:00 PM ET/2:00 AM GMT for his weekly coverage of trading prep for $AUDUSD in the week ahead. Register here:
  • Dow Jones climbed a second day on fiscal stimulus hopes. All 9 Dow sectors were up. Traders face a quiet calendar day, with the 1st presidential debate closely eyed. The live TV debate will be on air from 9:00 to 10:30am Singapore time on Wednesday.
  • According to John Hopkins University, Coronavirus deaths globally have surpassed 1 million people
  • What is the outlook for financial markets ahead of the first presidential debate and how are Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump doing in the polls? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here:
  • ❗Heads up for #Rupee $USDINR traders! The #RBI monetary policy announcement originally set for October 1 is going to be rescheduled at a later date, tbd, Will update once time is known -
  • European negotiators have indicated for the first time that they are prepared to start writing a joint legal text of a trade agreement with the UK, before fresh talks begin today, according to The Times $GBP
AUD/USD Catches Highest Price in 2 Years; What's Next?

AUD/USD Catches Highest Price in 2 Years; What's Next?

2017-07-21 03:04:00
Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M, Head of Education

Since May 19, the model we have been following implied an eventual retest of 79 cents. Now that prices have cleared the previous 12 month consolidation rising to the highest price in 2 years, what does the Elliott Wave model suggest?

The model we are following shows a major wave relationship near .7911 and a minor wave relationship near .7956. These two wave relationships appearing this close together may suggest a reaction lower is looming. Due to the structure of the pattern since September 2015, we can consider the whole corrective sequence higher complete, though it is a little early to confirm.

The Elliott Wave model we are following is a complex correction higher that began September 2015 as an expanded flat, followed by an ‘X’ wave triangle, followed by a zigzag.

The biggest clue about this complex correction is the ‘X’ wave triangle. We know from Elliott Wave theory that triangle patterns precede the ending move of the pattern at the next larger degree. The triangle pattern formed from April 2016 and ended in May 2017 at .7378. That suggests this move higher is a terminal wave to end the sequence that began September 2015.

(View webinar recording on triangle patterns, how to read them and how to trade them.)

AUD/USD Flat-Triangle-Zigzag Elliott Wave Complex Correction

Closer inspection of the May 2017 to current up trend, we are anticipating some type of A-B-C pattern. We can count a zigzag complete where the distance of wave C equals the distance at wave A at .7956.

(Learn more about zigzag patterns in this webinar recording on zigzags.)

If this pattern holds, then we can anticipate a large sell off to begin from nearby levels and retest 69 cents. Before we get excited about a bearish reversal, let us wait for price and sentiment to confirm a turn.

IG Client Sentiment is running at -2.73. If we see this number start to elevate and increase, then it would be symptomatic of a bearish turn in price that would line up with the Elliott Wave model. Learn how to trade with sentiment with our IG client sentiment guide.

Three DailyFX analysts selected the Australian Dollar as their top trade for 2017. Read pages 13, 18, 20 of DailyFX’s Top Trades of 2017.

---Written by Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M

Discuss this market with Jeremy in Monday’s US Opening Bell webinar.

Follow on twitter @JWagnerFXTrader .

Join Jeremy’s distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.