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AUDUSD Near-term Top Confirmed on Daily Close Below 1.0440

AUDUSD Near-term Top Confirmed on Daily Close Below 1.0440

2012-08-27 11:10:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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4-Hour Bars

eliottWaves_aud-usd_body_Picture_1.png, AUDUSD Near-term Top Confirmed on Daily Close Below 1.0440

Prepared by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

The close below 1.0435/40 on Friday suggests that the ascending channel in place since mid-June has broken to the downside, thus confirming our short-term view that a top has been put in place after multiple failures above 1.0600. Accordingly, given the descending channel off of the August 9 high, we will proceed to sell rallies in the AUDUSD. A daily close below former trendline support at 1.0440/50 today is crucial for sustained losses. A close above said level brings into focus 1.0480. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.0440/50 (channel support dating back to June, 200-SMA on 4-hour chart), 1.0480, 1.0530/45 (former swing highs), and 1.0600/15 (August high). Should we see a rally up towards 1.0600 again, another failure would market a Double Top and signal a push for a test of 1.0200/05 (100-DMA).

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