AUDUSD July Blowoff Déjà vu
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
“AUDUSD price action this July is eerily similar to AUDUSD price action in July 2011 (see channel on left side of the chart…potential reversal levels include the current level (61.8% retracement and 61.8% extension of rally from June low), 10429 (May high), 10473 (100% extension of rally from 6/25 low and 4/27 high), and 10600 (100% extension of rally from June low and 2/23 low).” It looks more and more like the 10600 area will be a sticky one. Aside from the already mentioned extension and 2/23 low, the 161.8% extension of 10100/10308 / 10235 comes in at 10570. In the event of a real nasty blowoff top (wouldn’t be a shocker given thin summer markets), the trendline that extends off of the 2011 and 2012 highs comes in at 10700 towards the end of the month. 10390 is support. As noted this morning, a drop back into the early month range (10330) is needed for me to consider the short side. For those brave enough to play short term mean reversion, I’d expect a decent reaction off of 10473 if reached Friday.
LEVELS: 10330 10360 10390 10473 10510 10600