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AUDUSD Reverses Week’s Gains

AUDUSD Reverses Week’s Gains

2012-06-21 23:30:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist
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Daily Bars

eliottWaves_aud-usd_body_audusd.png, AUDUSD Reverses Week’s Gains

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I’d like to think that a top is in place given the level that the AUDUSD reversed from (April low, 50% retracement of decline from February high, 100% extension of rally from 9580 and 13 week average) but I’m also aware of the arduous topping process common to the AUDUSD (and NZDUSD). In any case, I am bearish even in the event of a new high. A new high would probably be minimal and downside potential is far greater. I do expect a bounce near term. In fact, in the past 10 years, the AUDUSD has only declined 1.5% or more on a Thursday 22 times (separate days). The AUDUSD rallied the following Friday 16 of those times by an average of 64 pips (close to close). NYSE TRIN also registered its highest closing reading of the year (highest since 12/28/11), which is bullish for tomorrow. Like everything else, a clean 5 waves from the top would increase confidence that a top is in place.

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