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EUR Clears 1.2480 Target, Break Above Eyes 1.2550- 79.60 Key For JPY

EUR Clears 1.2480 Target, Break Above Eyes 1.2550- 79.60 Key For JPY

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Daily Winners and Losers

EUR_Clears_1.2480_Target_Break_Above_Eyes_1.2550-_79.60_Key_For_JPY_body_Picture_7.png, EUR Clears 1.2480 Target, Break Above Eyes 1.2550- 79.60 Key For JPYEUR_Clears_1.2480_Target_Break_Above_Eyes_1.2550-_79.60_Key_For_JPY_body_Picture_6.png, EUR Clears 1.2480 Target, Break Above Eyes 1.2550- 79.60 Key For JPYEUR_Clears_1.2480_Target_Break_Above_Eyes_1.2550-_79.60_Key_For_JPY_body_Picture_5.png, EUR Clears 1.2480 Target, Break Above Eyes 1.2550- 79.60 Key For JPY

The euro is the strongest performer against a weaker greenback in late North American trade with an advance of 1.03% on the session. The EURUSD triggered our initial monthly target noted multiple times this month at the 100% Fibonacci extension taken from the July and August lows at 1.2480. Our downside threshold has now been moved up to the 61.8% extension at 1.2350 with only a break below the 1.2250 level shifting our focus lower. As long as this level is respected however, we must continue to look higher with a breach above 1.2480 eyeing subsequent topside targets at the 38.2% retracement taken from the late March decline at 1.2550 and the 100-day moving average at 1.2625. Note that RSI is now at its highest level since March 26th with a breach above this mark offering further conviction on our directional bias.

EUR_Clears_1.2480_Target_Break_Above_Eyes_1.2550-_79.60_Key_For_JPY_body_Picture_4.png, EUR Clears 1.2480 Target, Break Above Eyes 1.2550- 79.60 Key For JPY

The 30min scalp charts show the EURUSD surging after breaking above 100% Fibonacci extension taken from the August 16th and 17th toughs at 1.2414. A longer-term extension taken from the August 2nd and 10th troughs caught today’s highs at the 78.6% extension at 1.2483 (Note confluence with the 100% extension on the daily chart above). This level remains paramount for the pair with a breach above eyeing subsequent intra-day resistance targets at the 1.25-handle, 1.2502 and the 100% long-term extension at 1.2550. Look for an RSI break below trendline support to possibly trigger a short-term correction with a break below interim support at the 138.2% extension (1.2460) eyeing subsequent intra-day targets at 1.2440 (confluence of former monthly high and the 123.6% ext.) and the 100% extension at 1.2414.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

200-Day SMA

1.2892

100-Day SMA

1.2627

50-Day SMA

1.2376

2012 EUR High

1.3485

EUR_Clears_1.2480_Target_Break_Above_Eyes_1.2550-_79.60_Key_For_JPY_body_Picture_3.png, EUR Clears 1.2480 Target, Break Above Eyes 1.2550- 79.60 Key For JPYEUR_Clears_1.2480_Target_Break_Above_Eyes_1.2550-_79.60_Key_For_JPY_body_Picture_2.png, EUR Clears 1.2480 Target, Break Above Eyes 1.2550- 79.60 Key For JPY

The Japanese yen is the weakest performer against the greenback with a decline of just 0.01% on the session despite broader dollar losses. The 100-day moving average (currently at 79.62) has continued to cap advances in the exchange rate with precision and remains a key hurdle for the pair with a breach above this mark eying topside targets at the July high at 80.10 and the June high at 80.63. Note that daily RSI has now cleared the 60-threshold for the first time since late March and suggests that we may see the pair continue to pull away from the lows put in at the start of August trade at 77.92. Interim support now rests with the 200-day moving average at 79.25 and 78.60.

EUR_Clears_1.2480_Target_Break_Above_Eyes_1.2550-_79.60_Key_For_JPY_body_Picture_1.png, EUR Clears 1.2480 Target, Break Above Eyes 1.2550- 79.60 Key For JPY

An hourly scalp chart shows the USDJPY briefly breaching above soft resistance at 79.55 before pulling back to the 50% Fibonacci extension taken from the June 1st and July 31st troughs at 79.38. Look for the pair to correct lower before resuming its advance with downside intra-day support targets seen at 79.20, the 38.2% extension at 79.03 and 78.80. A breach above interim resistance eyes topside targets at the 61.8% extension at 79.73, 80.10, 80.35 and he June previously mentioned at 80.60.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

200-Day SMA

79.26

100-Day SMA

79.62

50-Day SMA

79.08

2012 JPY Low

84.19

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX.com

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