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AUD Eyes Critical Resistance at 1.0330- JPY Strength Under Review

AUD Eyes Critical Resistance at 1.0330- JPY Strength Under Review

2012-07-17 18:36:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Daily Winners and Losers

AUD_Eyes_Critical_Resistance_at_1.0330-_JPY_Strength_Under_Review_body_Picture_7.png, AUD Eyes Critical Resistance at 1.0330- JPY Strength Under ReviewAUD_Eyes_Critical_Resistance_at_1.0330-_JPY_Strength_Under_Review_body_Picture_6.png, AUD Eyes Critical Resistance at 1.0330- JPY Strength Under ReviewAUD_Eyes_Critical_Resistance_at_1.0330-_JPY_Strength_Under_Review_body_Picture_5.png, AUD Eyes Critical Resistance at 1.0330- JPY Strength Under Review

The Australian dollar is the top performer on the session with an advance of 0.34% in New York afternoon trade. Minutes from the latest RBA policy meeting proved to be more optimistic than anticipated with investors paring back expectations for further rate cuts from the central bank. Credit Suisse overnight swaps are now factoring a reduced 48% chance of a 25basis point cut at the next meeting with twelve month expectations still calling for another 100basis points in additional cuts. Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee today fueled whipsaw action in currency markets as his initial remarks offered no new hope for any immediate additional easing from the central bank. Interestingly Bernanke did note that a weaker greenback may be beneficial for the domestic economy, with the dollar surrendering early gains to trade lower on the session.

The daily charts shows the AUDUSD struggling to break above the confluence of former channel support and the 200-day moving average at 1.0281. A close above this mark exposes subsequent resistance targets at the July high (1.0330), 1.0380 and the April highs at 1.0475. Interim daily support remains with the April lows at 1.0227 backed by the 23.6% Fibonacci extension taken from the April and July crests at 1.0122. We maintain our bearish outlook on the aussie so long as 1.0330 is respected with a break above this mark invalidating this particular setup.

AUD_Eyes_Critical_Resistance_at_1.0330-_JPY_Strength_Under_Review_body_Picture_4.png, AUD Eyes Critical Resistance at 1.0330- JPY Strength Under Review

The scalp chart shows the AUDUSD holding above soft support at 1.0280 – last week’s high – with interim resistance targets eyed at the 61.8% Fibonacci extension taken from the June 28th and July 12th lows at 1.0305, 1.0327 (monthly high) and the 78.6% extension at 1.0360. A break below interim support sees subsequent floors at 1.0265, the 38.2% extension at 1.0225 and 1.0205.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

200-Day SMA

1.0281

100-Day SMA

1.0221

50-Day SMA

1.0013

2012 AUD High

1.0857

AUD_Eyes_Critical_Resistance_at_1.0330-_JPY_Strength_Under_Review_body_Picture_3.png, AUD Eyes Critical Resistance at 1.0330- JPY Strength Under ReviewAUD_Eyes_Critical_Resistance_at_1.0330-_JPY_Strength_Under_Review_body_Picture_2.png, AUD Eyes Critical Resistance at 1.0330- JPY Strength Under Review

The Japanese yen is the weakest performer against the greenback with a decline of 0.28% on the session. The low yielder is lower against all its major counterparts today as yields on US Treasuries rose with the USDJPY moving back above the 200-day moving average just above the 79-handle. Although the rebound bodes well for our longer-term directional bias, the pair may yet see further downside before continuing higher with daily support seen at the June 15th low at 78.62 backed by trendline support dating back to the February lows. A break below this level invalidates our bias. Initial topside resistance is eyed at the Sunday high at 79.37 backed by the 61.8% Fibonacci extension taken from the June 1st and 15th troughs at 79.95 with breach above the 100% extension at 80.75 (June highs at 80.63) offering further conviction on our bullish outlook.

AUD_Eyes_Critical_Resistance_at_1.0330-_JPY_Strength_Under_Review_body_Picture_1.png, AUD Eyes Critical Resistance at 1.0330- JPY Strength Under Review

The scalp chart shows the USDJPY briefly breaking below the confluence of channel support and the 78.6% Fibonacci extension taken from the June 24th and July 5th crests at 78.90 before reversing course to trade higher on the session. Initial resistance stands at the 61.8% extension at 79.15 backed by 79.33, the 38.2% extension at 79.50 and 79.75. A break back below interim support risks another run on the 100% extension at 78.60 with a move below this level eyeing soft support at 78.40 and the 123.6% extension at 78.25.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

200-Day SMA

79.07

100-Day SMA

80.59

50-Day SMA

79.48

2012 JPY LOW

84.19

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX.com

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