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AUD Primed For Bearish Breakdown- GBP Lacks Direction Above 1.5535

AUD Primed For Bearish Breakdown- GBP Lacks Direction Above 1.5535

2012-06-27 17:53:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Daily Winners and Losers

AUD_Primed_For_Bearish_Breakdown-_GBP_Lacks_Direction_Above_1.5535_body_Picture_7.png, AUD Primed For Bearish Breakdown- GBP Lacks Direction Above 1.5535AUD_Primed_For_Bearish_Breakdown-_GBP_Lacks_Direction_Above_1.5535_body_Picture_6.png, AUD Primed For Bearish Breakdown- GBP Lacks Direction Above 1.5535AUD_Primed_For_Bearish_Breakdown-_GBP_Lacks_Direction_Above_1.5535_body_Picture_5.png, AUD Primed For Bearish Breakdown- GBP Lacks Direction Above 1.5535

The Australian dollar is the top performer against the greenback at the close of European trade with an advance of 0.09% on the session. The dollar has remained well supported despite a rally in equity markets with the greenback outperforming all its major counterparts save the aussie. Stronger-than-expected US durable goods orders have kept broader risk appetite supported with subsiding calls for further Fed easing reducing downward pressure on the reserve currency.

The AUDUSD held a tight range in overnight trade with the pair currently straddling the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement taken from the late February decline at 1.0067. A fresh Fibonacci extension (blue) taken from the April 30th and June 20th highs highlights interim support at the 23.6% extension at 1.0015 with our primary objective eyed at the confluence of the 38.2% extension and the 23.6% retracement at 9880. We maintain our bearish bias on the pair with only a breach above the confluence of the 50% retracement and the April lows at 1.0225 invalidating our current setup.

AUD_Primed_For_Bearish_Breakdown-_GBP_Lacks_Direction_Above_1.5535_body_Picture_4.png, AUD Primed For Bearish Breakdown- GBP Lacks Direction Above 1.5535

The scalp chart shows the AUDUSD continuing to trade above short-term trendline support with interim resistance seen at the 1.01-handle backed by 1.0130 and 1.0165. A break below trendline support eyes subsequent support targets at 1.0025, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement taken from the June advance at 9977, and 9930. Note that RSI has continued to hold above trendline support dating back to the June 25th low with a break below putting our downside targets in view.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

200-Day SMA

1.0249

100-Day SMA

1.0290

50-Day SMA

1.0038

2012 AUD HIGH

1.0857

AUD_Primed_For_Bearish_Breakdown-_GBP_Lacks_Direction_Above_1.5535_body_Picture_3.png, AUD Primed For Bearish Breakdown- GBP Lacks Direction Above 1.5535AUD_Primed_For_Bearish_Breakdown-_GBP_Lacks_Direction_Above_1.5535_body_Picture_2.png, AUD Primed For Bearish Breakdown- GBP Lacks Direction Above 1.5535

The British pound is the weakest performer against the dollar with a decline of 0.58% on the session. The GBPUSD now eyes dailyinterim support at the 23.6% Fibonacci extension (blue) taken from the April 30th and June 20th highs at 1.5535. A break below this level exposes subsequent floors at the confluence of long-standing trendline support dating back January 2009 and the 38.2% extension at 1.5385. Daily resistance stands at the 38.2% retracement taken form the April 30th decline at1.5660 and is backed by the 200-day moving average at 1.5745 and the 50% retracement at 1.5783. Note that daily RSI is now probing below trendline support dating back to the June low with a close below this trendline needed to confirm the break. An accompanied break in price action below the 23.6% extension at 1.5535 shifts our focus lower with such a scenario eyeing subsequent support targets.

AUD_Primed_For_Bearish_Breakdown-_GBP_Lacks_Direction_Above_1.5535_body_Picture_1.png, AUD Primed For Bearish Breakdown- GBP Lacks Direction Above 1.5535

The scalp chart shows the GBPUSD testing soft support at 1.5550 after breaking below the 38.2% retracement taken from the June advance at 1.5580. Subsequent support targets are eyed at the 50% retracement at 1.5520, 1.5845, and the key 61.8% retracement at 1.5460. A breach above 1.5580 eyes topside resistance levels at 1.5610 and 1.5640 with a break above the 23.6% extension at 1.5655 risking further losses for the greenback. We remain neutral on the pound at these levels with a break below daily support offering further conviction on a directional bias.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

200-Day SMA

1.5746

100-Day SMA

1.5824

50-Day SMA

1.5810

2012 GBP LOW

1.5232

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX.com

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