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USD Shines as Risk Slides- CAD Resilient as JPY losses Accelerate

USD Shines as Risk Slides- CAD Resilient as JPY losses Accelerate

2012-02-14 19:33:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Daily Winners and Losers

USD_Shines_as_Risk_Appetite-_CAD_Resilient_as_JPY_losses_Accelerate_body_Picture_5.png, USD Shines as Risk Slides- CAD Resilient as JPY losses AccelerateUSD_Shines_as_Risk_Appetite-_CAD_Resilient_as_JPY_losses_Accelerate_body_Picture_6.png, USD Shines as Risk Slides- CAD Resilient as JPY losses AccelerateUSD_Shines_as_Risk_Appetite-_CAD_Resilient_as_JPY_losses_Accelerate_body_Picture_7.png, USD Shines as Risk Slides- CAD Resilient as JPY losses Accelerate

The Canadian dollar is the top performing currency against a substantially stronger greenback with the pair higher by just 0.10% at 2pm in New York. The US dollar has mounted a counteroffensive as ongoing concerns regarding the deepening crisis in Europe continues to weigh on broader market sentiment with newswires reporting today that the EU finance ministers meeting scheduled for tomorrow has been postponed on account of incomplete Greek paperwork. As markets continue to wait on further resolution to the Greek dilemma, the March deadline quickly approaches with the country facing some €14 billion in bond redemptions and paybacks due on the 20th. Compounding the problem was a statement from Moody’s Investor Services which downgraded Italy, Portugal and Spain while putting the UK on negative outlook. Accordingly, risk appetite has remained under pressure with higher yielding assets coming under pressure as the greenback was bid higher on classic haven flows.

The USD/CAD broke above channel resistance dating back to January 13th back on Thursday with the pair now consolidating into the apex of a wedge formation between the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci extensions taken from the January 3rd and February 3rd troughs at 0.9980 and 1.0015 respectively. The loonie continues to straddle the parity mark with a breach above the 38.2% extension eyeing subsequent topside targets at the overnight highs at 1.0025, the 50% extension at 1.0045, and the 6138% extension at 1.0070. A break below trendline support looks for soft support at 0.9965 backed by 0.9940 and the 2012 lows at 0.9924. Our bias on this pair remains weighted to the topside noting a break above key daily Fibonacci resistance at 1.0045 coupled with and RSI break above trendline resistance needed to provide further conviction on an extended USD/CAD rally.

USD_Shines_as_Risk_Appetite-_CAD_Resilient_as_JPY_losses_Accelerate_body_Picture_8.png, USD Shines as Risk Slides- CAD Resilient as JPY losses Accelerate

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

200-Day SMA

0.9973

100-Day SMA

1.0184

50-Day SMA

1.0141

2011 CAD High

0.9406

USD_Shines_as_Risk_Appetite-_CAD_Resilient_as_JPY_losses_Accelerate_body_Picture_9.png, USD Shines as Risk Slides- CAD Resilient as JPY losses AccelerateUSD_Shines_as_Risk_Appetite-_CAD_Resilient_as_JPY_losses_Accelerate_body_Picture_10.png, USD Shines as Risk Slides- CAD Resilient as JPY losses Accelerate

The Japanese yen is the weakest performer against the dollar at late in US trade with a decline of 1.15% on the session. The greenback is now the chief beneficiary of risk-off flows with the yen falling against all its major counterparts today. Weaker-than-expected GDP data noted in yesterday’s Winners/Losers report prompted the Bank of Japan to inject another ¥10 trillion ($128 billion) into the economy in an effort to ward off further weakness as growth prospects continue to diminish.

The USD/JPY broke above the 100% Fibonacci extension taken from the January 17th and February 1st troughs at 77.75 before surging through the 123.6% extension to settle around the 138.2% extension at 78.40. Subsequent topside targets are eyed at the 161.8% extension at 78.80 backed by the 79-figure and the intervention highs at 79.50. Interim support rests at 78.15 backed by the 78-handle and the 100% extension at 77.75. Our medium-term bias on the USD/JPY remains weighted to the topside as haven flows now continue to favor the dollar.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

200-Day SMA

78.05

100-Day SMA

77.18

50-Day SMA

77.24

2011 JPY High

75.50

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX.com

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