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USD Pares Losses as Euphoria Over European ‘Fix’ Fizzles- Franc Heavy

USD Pares Losses as Euphoria Over European ‘Fix’ Fizzles- Franc Heavy

2011-10-11 14:43:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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Daily Winners and Losers

USD_Pares_Losses_as_Euphoria_Over_European_Fix_Fizzles-_Franc_Heavy_body_Picture_2.png, USD Pares Losses as Euphoria Over European ‘Fix’ Fizzles- Franc HeavyUSD_Pares_Losses_as_Euphoria_Over_European_Fix_Fizzles-_Franc_Heavy_body_Picture_3.png, USD Pares Losses as Euphoria Over European ‘Fix’ Fizzles- Franc HeavyUSD_Pares_Losses_as_Euphoria_Over_European_Fix_Fizzles-_Franc_Heavy_body_Picture_4.png, USD Pares Losses as Euphoria Over European ‘Fix’ Fizzles- Franc Heavy

The Japanese yen is the top performer against a stronger dollar early in North American trade, sliding just 0.04% an hour into trade. Yesterday’s stellar rally in risk has tapered off as investors take to the sidelines after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet warned that the debt crisis has reached ‘systemic dimensions’ noting an increased risk of contagion. Market participants are now closely eyeing Slovakia where lawmakers are scheduled to vote on the expansion of the EFSF. The yen remains well supported above the 38.2% Fibonacci extension taken from the October 9th and September 2nd crests at 76.57 since the start of the month, noting downside support targets lower at 76.45 and the 61.8% extension at 76.15. A break above interim resistance at 76.75 eyes topside targets at the 23.6% extension at 76.85, and the 77-figure. Look for the yen to hold its recent range here with bias weighted to the downside. Overnight traders will be eyeing August Machine orders from Japan with consensus estimates calling for a print of 3.9% m/m, up from a previous contraction of 8.2% m/m. The year on year figure is expected to print at -3.6%, down from a previous print of 4.0% y/y.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

100-Day SMA

78.40

50-Day SMA

76.90

20-Day SMA

76.65

2011 JPY High

75.94

Upcoming Events

Date

GMT

Release

Expected

Previous

10/11

23:50

Machine Orders (MoM) (AUG)

3.9%

-8.2%

10/11

23:50

Machine Orders (YoY) (AUG)

-3.6%

4.0%

USD_Pares_Losses_as_Euphoria_Over_European_Fix_Fizzles-_Franc_Heavy_body_Picture_5.png, USD Pares Losses as Euphoria Over European ‘Fix’ Fizzles- Franc HeavyUSD_Pares_Losses_as_Euphoria_Over_European_Fix_Fizzles-_Franc_Heavy_body_Picture_6.png, USD Pares Losses as Euphoria Over European ‘Fix’ Fizzles- Franc Heavy

The Swiss franc continues to pair gains after yesterday’s stellar 2.6% advance against the dollar. News over the weekend that French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Merkel had agreed to present a long-term plan to shore up and recapitalize the banking system by next month slammed the greenback which ended the day lower across all its major counterparts. As noted in yesterday’s Winners/Losers report, the USD/CHF pair rebounded off support at the 0.90-handle in overnight trade before encountering resistance at the 76.4% Fibonacci extension taken from the September 22nd and October 6th crests at 0.9115. A topside break here eyes subsequent ceilings at the 61.8% extension at 0.9150 and the 50% extension at 0.9180. Interim support rests at 0.9080 backed by the 100% extension at 0.9050 and 0.9030.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

100-Day SMA

0.8362

50-Day SMA

0.8408

20-Day SMA

0.9012

2011 CHF High

0.7079

Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Analyst with DailyFX.com

To contact Michael emailmboutros@dailyfx.comor follow him on Twitter @MBForex.

To be added to Michael’s email distribution list, send an email with subject line “Distribution List” to mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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