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Aussie Climbs on Improved Risk Appetite- Rally to be Short-Lived

Aussie Climbs on Improved Risk Appetite- Rally to be Short-Lived

2011-09-29 15:00:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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Daily Winners and Losers

Aussie_Climbs_on_Improved_Risk_Appetite-_Rally_to_be_Short-Lived_body_Picture_2.png, Aussie Climbs on Improved Risk Appetite- Rally to be Short-LivedAussie_Climbs_on_Improved_Risk_Appetite-_Rally_to_be_Short-Lived_body_Picture_3.png, Aussie Climbs on Improved Risk Appetite- Rally to be Short-LivedAussie_Climbs_on_Improved_Risk_Appetite-_Rally_to_be_Short-Lived_body_Picture_4.png, Aussie Climbs on Improved Risk Appetite- Rally to be Short-Lived

The Australian dollar is the top performer against a weaker greenback in North American trade, advancing 0.82% early in the session. News that the German parliament had successfully passed a vote to expand the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) saw a pickup in risk as concerns of an imminent default in the region eased. Demand for higher yielding assets propped up the aussie which continues to consolidate within a triangle formation. Interim resistance stands at the upper-bound trendline with topside breach eyeing subsequent ceilings seen at the 76.4% Fibonacci extension taken from the July 28th and September 1st crests at 0.9895, 0.9930 and the weekly high at 0.9980. Support rests at the 0.9800-figure backed by 0.9750 and the 97-handle. From a technical standpoint the longer-term outlook for the aussie remains weighted to the downside with targets seen held as low as 0.9620.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

100-Day SMA

1.0545

50-Day SMA

1.0448

20-Day SMA

1.0220

2011 AUD High

1.1079

Upcoming Events

Date

GMT

Release

Expected

Previous

9/30

1:30

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (AUG)

0.2%

0.2%

9/30

1:30

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (AUG)

2.8%

2.7%

Aussie_Climbs_on_Improved_Risk_Appetite-_Rally_to_be_Short-Lived_body_Picture_5.png, Aussie Climbs on Improved Risk Appetite- Rally to be Short-LivedAussie_Climbs_on_Improved_Risk_Appetite-_Rally_to_be_Short-Lived_body_Picture_6.png, Aussie Climbs on Improved Risk Appetite- Rally to be Short-Lived

The yen fell in early US trade as demand for safe haven waned on news of the German vote with a decline of 0.29% against the greenback. The pair briefly broke above the 23.6% Fibonacci extension taken from the August 4th and September 9th crests at 76.80 to tag the 77-figure before quickly paring the gains. Market sentiment remains fragile however with a high probability of a rebound in risk aversion flows over the next few days. The yen is likely to remain range bound at these levels with interim support eyed at 76.60 and the lower bound trendline at 76.40. Resistance holds at the figure with a breach eyeing topside targets at 77.35 and 77.60. Traders will be eyeing a flurry of data out of Japan overnight, highlighted by the August jobless rate, household spending, and industrial production.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

100-Day SMA

78.77

50-Day SMA

77.04

20-Day SMA

76.83

2011 JPY High

75.94

Upcoming Events

Date

GMT

Release

Expected

Previous

9/29

23:30

Jobless Rate (AUG)

4.7%

4.7%

9/29

23:30

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (AUG)

0.65

0.64

9/29

23:30

Household Spending (YoY) (AUG)

-2.8%

-2.1%

9/29

23:30

Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP)

-0.2%

-0.2%

9/29

23:30

Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (SEP)

-0.1%

-0.2%

9/29

23:30

Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (SEP)

-0.5%

-0.6%

9/29

23:30

National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

0.1%

0.2%

9/29

23:30

National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (AUG)

0.1%

0.1%

9/29

23:30

National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (AUG)

-0.6%

-0.5%

9/29

23:50

Industrial Production (MoM) (AUG P)

1.5%

0.4%

9/29

23:50

Industrial Production (YoY) (AUG P)

1.1%

-3.0%

9/30

4:00

Vehicle Production (YoY) (AUG)

-

-8.9%

9/30

5:00

Housing Starts (YoY) (AUG)

4.5%

21.2%

9/30

5:00

Construction Orders (YoY) (AUG)

-

5.7%

9/30

5:00

Annualized Housing Starts (AUG)

0.860M

0.955M

Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact the author of this report or receive his daily reports, please send inquiries to:mboutros@dailyfx.com

You can also follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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