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Yen Advances as Lack of Market Conviction Weighs on Sentiment

Yen Advances as Lack of Market Conviction Weighs on Sentiment

2011-09-28 14:44:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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Daily Winners and Losers

Yen_Advances_as_Lack_of_Market_Conviction_Weighs_on_Sentiment_body_Picture_2.png, Yen Advances as Lack of Market Conviction Weighs on SentimentYen_Advances_as_Lack_of_Market_Conviction_Weighs_on_Sentiment_body_Picture_3.png, Yen Advances as Lack of Market Conviction Weighs on SentimentYen_Advances_as_Lack_of_Market_Conviction_Weighs_on_Sentiment_body_Picture_4.png, Yen Advances as Lack of Market Conviction Weighs on Sentiment

The Japanese yen tops the performance charts against the greenback in early North American trade with an advance of 0.47%. The dollar is mixed at the open with the yen and the euro continuing to mount their assault on the greenback as equity markets remain supported on hopes that European officials will avert further debt contagion in the region. The USDJPY pair dipped below the 76.55 interim support level overnight before finding solace above trendline support. Market sentiment remains fragile however with a rebound in the dollar likely over the next few days. Interim topside resistance is held at 76.55 backed by 76.70 and the 23.6% Fibonacci extension taken from the August 4th and September 9th crests at 76.80. A break below trendline support exposes the 38.2% extension at 76.20 and the 76-figure. Look for intervention concerns to be rekindled should yen strength persist to these levels. Overnight trader will be eying data out of Japan with August retail trade figures and large retail sales on tap.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

100-Day SMA

78.81

50-Day SMA

77.07

20-Day SMA

76.82

2011 JPY High

75.94

Upcoming Events

Date

GMT

Release

Expected

Previous

9/28

23:50

Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (AUG)

0.2%

-0.3%

9/28

23:50

Retail Trade (YoY) (AUG)

-0.8%

0.7%

9/28

23:50

Large Retailers' Sales (AUG)

-0.6%

0.8%

Yen_Advances_as_Lack_of_Market_Conviction_Weighs_on_Sentiment_body_Picture_5.png, Yen Advances as Lack of Market Conviction Weighs on SentimentYen_Advances_as_Lack_of_Market_Conviction_Weighs_on_Sentiment_body_Picture_6.png, Yen Advances as Lack of Market Conviction Weighs on Sentiment

The Canadian dollar is the weakest of the majors against the greenback, sliding more than 0.35% in early US trade. The pair continues to trade within a tight range between the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement taken from the September 16th advance at 1.0240 and the 1.02-figure. If risk appetite trails off as we expect, look for the dollar to push higher with topside breach eyeing targets eyed at 1.0270, 1.0320, and 1.0370. A break below interim support sees subsequent floors at the 38.2% retracement at 1.0150, the 50% retracement at 1.0080, and the 61.8% retracement just above parity.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

100-Day SMA

0.9769

50-Day SMA

0.9831

20-Day SMA

0.9976

2011 CAD High

0.9426

Upcoming Events

Date

GMT

Release

Expected

Previous

9/29

12:30

Industrial Product Price (MoM) (AUG)

-0.3%

-0.3%

9/29

12:30

Raw Materials Price Index (MoM) (AUG)

-1.3%

-1.2%

Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact the author of this report or receive his daily reports, please send inquiries to:mboutros@dailyfx.com

You can also follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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