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Swiss Franc Rally Accelerates as European Concerns Slams Risk

Swiss Franc Rally Accelerates as European Concerns Slams Risk

2011-09-05 13:27:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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Daily Winners and Losers

Swiss_Franc_Rally_Accelerates_as_European_Concerns_Slams_Risk_body_Picture_2.png, Swiss Franc Rally Accelerates as European Concerns Slams RiskSwiss_Franc_Rally_Accelerates_as_European_Concerns_Slams_Risk_body_Picture_3.png, Swiss Franc Rally Accelerates as European Concerns Slams RiskSwiss_Franc_Rally_Accelerates_as_European_Concerns_Slams_Risk_body_Picture_4.png, Swiss Franc Rally Accelerates as European Concerns Slams Risk

The Swiss franc is the top performer against the greenback for the fourth consecutive session as heightened risk aversion supported flows into the swissie, the dollar, and the yen. The shift comes after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union was defeated in an election in her homes state. In total, the party has failed to secure votes in six states, fueling concerns that support for Europe’s bailouts may be waning. Subsequently the swissie has benefitted from haven flows with the franc advancing 0.32% late in the European session. The USD/CHF pair continues to hold below the 23.6% Fibonacci extension taken from the July 1st and August 29th crests at the 0.79-figure with downside targets eyed lower at 0.7820, 0.7750, and the 38.2% extension the 0.77-handle. A breach above interim resistance eyes topside targets at the 0.80-figure, with subsequent ceilings seen at 0.8075 and 0.8120. The pair is likely to hold this range into the Asian sessions amid thin trading as US markets remain closed in observance of Memorial Day. Overnight traders will be eyeing data out of Switzerland with August CPI ad currency reserves data on tap.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

50-Day SMA

0.8016

20-Day SMA

0.7861

10-Day SMA

0.7994

2011 CHF High

0.7124

Upcoming Events

Date

GMT

Release

Expected

Actual

9/6

7:00

Foreign Currency Reserves (AUG)

182.1B

9/6

7:15

Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)

-0.2%

-0.8%

9/6

7:15

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

0.3%

0.5%

9/6

7:15

Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (MoM) (AUG)

-0.8%

9/6

7:15

Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (YoY) (AUG)

0.3%

Swiss_Franc_Rally_Accelerates_as_European_Concerns_Slams_Risk_body_Picture_5.png, Swiss Franc Rally Accelerates as European Concerns Slams RiskSwiss_Franc_Rally_Accelerates_as_European_Concerns_Slams_Risk_body_Picture_6.png, Swiss Franc Rally Accelerates as European Concerns Slams Risk

The kiwi suffered the sharpest decline against a stronger US data, with the NZD/USD lower by more than 1.3% at 9am in New York. As traders continue to jettison risk on concerns that the loss of support in Germany may jeopardize the Euro zone recovery, higher yielding currencies will remain on the defensive. The kiwi broke below the 0.8445 support level in the Asian session before encountering interim support at the 23.6% Fibonacci extension taken from the July 31st and August 31st crests at 0.8360. This level is likely to hold heading into the Asian session noting subsequent floors at 0.8320, 0.8280, and the 38.2% extension at 0.8230. Topside resistance now stands at the 0.84-figure, backed by 0.8445 and 0.8525. Price action for the kiwi will largely be dictated by shifts in market sentiment with continued risk aversion likely to weigh on the NZD/USD pair.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

50-Day SMA

0.8410

20-Day SMA

0.8347

10-Day SMA

0.8415

2011 EUR High

0.8842

Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact the author of this report or receive his daily reports, please send inquiries to:mboutros@dailyfx.com

You can also follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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