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Chinese GDP Data Fuels Kiwi Advance as Risk Appetite Improves

Chinese GDP Data Fuels Kiwi Advance as Risk Appetite Improves

2011-07-13 14:32:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Daily Winners and Losers

Chinese_GDP_Data_Fuels_Kiwi_Advance_as_Risk_Appetite_Improves_body_Picture_2.png, Chinese GDP Data Fuels Kiwi Advance as Risk Appetite ImprovesChinese_GDP_Data_Fuels_Kiwi_Advance_as_Risk_Appetite_Improves_body_Picture_3.png, Chinese GDP Data Fuels Kiwi Advance as Risk Appetite ImprovesChinese_GDP_Data_Fuels_Kiwi_Advance_as_Risk_Appetite_Improves_body_Picture_4.png, Chinese GDP Data Fuels Kiwi Advance as Risk Appetite Improves

Today’s winners and losers sees yesterday’s piece reversed, with the Kiwi topping performance charts with a 1.2% advance against the greenback. The gains come on the back of stronger than expected Chinese 2Q GDP print which came in at 9.5% y/y, besting calls for a read of 9.3% y/y. Retail sales also surprised to the upside with a print of 17.7%, topping estimates calling for a read of 17.0%. The data bodes well for the likes of the kiwi and the aussie both of which advanced in overnight trade. The kiwi is expected to see further gains with interim topside targets eyed at the 23.6% Fibonacci extension taken from the June 9th and July 10th crests at 0.8294, backed by 0.8340 and 0.8360. Support rests at the 38.2% Fib extension at 0.8245 followed by 0.8220 and the 0.82-figure.

Event risk mounts for the kiwi later in the day with 1Q GDP figures on tap. Consensus estimates call for print of 0.3% q/q with the y/y figure seen sliding to 0.5% from a previous read if 0.8% y/y. Join me at 22.30GMT in the Live Trading Room for live coverage of the data release.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

50-Day SMA

0.8100

20-Day SMA

0.8200

10-Day SMA

0.8282

2011 Kiwi High

0.8375

Upcoming Events

Date

GMT

Release

Expected

Actual

7/13

22:30

Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (JUN)

-

54.7

7/13

22:45

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q)

0.3%

0.2%

7/13

22:45

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q)

0.5%

0.8%

7/14

3:00

Non Resident Bond Holdings (JUN)

-

61.2%

Chinese_GDP_Data_Fuels_Kiwi_Advance_as_Risk_Appetite_Improves_body_Picture_5.png, Chinese GDP Data Fuels Kiwi Advance as Risk Appetite ImprovesChinese_GDP_Data_Fuels_Kiwi_Advance_as_Risk_Appetite_Improves_body_Picture_6.png, Chinese GDP Data Fuels Kiwi Advance as Risk Appetite Improves

The yen remained relatively flat heading into the start of US trade, with a modest gain of just 0.02% against a weaker dollar. The greenback has seen broad-based weakness early in the session as risk sentiment continues to improve and traders go on the hunt for yields. The USD/JPY continues to play within the ranges cited in Monday’s scalping report which highlighted recent yen strength. Interim support stands at 79.20 backed by the 100% Fibonacci extension taken from the May 19th and July 7th crests at 78.85 and 78.50. Topside resistance is eyed at the 76.4% extension at 79.45 followed by 79.80 and the 50% extension at 80.10. The yen is likely to continue to advance against the dollar as a dovish Bernanke testifies before the House Financial Services committee.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

50-Day SMA

80.72

20-Day SMA

80.48

10-Day SMA

80.46

2011 JPY High

76.35

Upcoming Events

Date

GMT

Release

Expected

Actual

7/13

23:50

Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JUL 8)

-

118.1B

7/13

23:50

Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JUL 8)

-

112.3B

7/13

23:50

Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (JUL 8)

-

442.1B

7/13

23:50

Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (JUL 8)

-

186.4B

7/14

4:00

Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (JUN)

-

-

7/14

6:00

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JUN F)

-

-

Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact the author of this report or receive his daily reports, please send inquiries to:mboutros@dailyfx.com

You can also follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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