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Dollar Regains Footing Amid Thin Holiday Trade- Data on Tap

Dollar Regains Footing Amid Thin Holiday Trade- Data on Tap

2011-05-30 14:18:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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Dollar_Regains_Footing_Amid_Thin_Holiday_Trade-_Data_on_Tap_body_Picture_2.png, Dollar Regains Footing Amid Thin Holiday Trade- Data on TapDollar_Regains_Footing_Amid_Thin_Holiday_Trade-_Data_on_Tap_body_Picture_3.png, Dollar Regains Footing Amid Thin Holiday Trade- Data on TapDollar_Regains_Footing_Amid_Thin_Holiday_Trade-_Data_on_Tap_body_Picture_4.png, Dollar Regains Footing Amid Thin Holiday Trade- Data on Tap

The dollar saw broad gains against the majors in overnight trade, with the yen holding its ground below the 80.90 level. The yen was marginally lower against the greenback coming into North American trade, with the USD/JPY pair holding just above the 23.6% Fibonacci extension taken from the April 5th and May 19th crests at 80.80. With US and UK markets closed for holiday, we expect to see range-bound trading throughout the day, noting topside targets at the 81-handle and 81.20. A break below interim support eyes subsequent floors at 80.70, 80.50, and the 38.2% Fibonacci extension at 79.92. Overnight, traders will be eying economic data out of Japan with May manufacturing PMI, household spending, the April jobless rate, and industrial production figures on tap.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

50-Day SMA

82.07

20-Day SMA

81.10

10-Day SMA

81.51

2011 High

85.51

Upcoming Events

Date

GMT

Importance

Release

Expected

Prior

5/30

23:15

MEDIUM

JPY Markit/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (MAY)

-

45.7

5/30

23:30

MEDIUM

JPY Household Spending (YoY) (APR)

-2.8%

-8.5%

5/30

23:30

MEDIUM

JPY Jobless Rate (APR)

4.7%

4.6%

5/30

23:30

LOW

JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio (APR)

0.62

0.63

5/30

23:50

MEDIUM

JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (APR P)

2.2%

-15.5%

3/30

23:50

MEDIUM

JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (APR P)

-12.4%

-13.1%

Dollar_Regains_Footing_Amid_Thin_Holiday_Trade-_Data_on_Tap_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Regains Footing Amid Thin Holiday Trade- Data on TapDollar_Regains_Footing_Amid_Thin_Holiday_Trade-_Data_on_Tap_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Regains Footing Amid Thin Holiday Trade- Data on Tap

The euro saw the largest declines against the greenback in overnight trade with a loss of 0.30%. The EUR/USD closed out the previous week higher by nearly 2% against the greenback as a lack of developments out of Europe calmed debt concerns while the dollar came off against all the majors. The pair continues to range trade between 1.4260 and the 1.43-handle with support seen lower at 1.4220 and the 1.42-handle. A break above interim resistance eyes subsequent ceilings at the long-term 61.8% Fibonacci extension taken from the June 6th and January 10th troughs at 1.4334, followed by 1.4370 and the 1.44-figure. The economic docket overnight will be closely watched with the May CPI and unemployment data on tap. The year on year CPI print and the April unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.8% and 9.9% respectively. All things held equal, we would expect to see the euro continue to show some weakness as concerns about a Greek debt restructuring once again weigh on market sentiment.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

50-Day SMA

1.4351

20-Day SMA

1.4293

10-Day SMA

1.4188

2011 High

1.4938

Upcoming Events

Date

GMT

Importance

Release

Expected

Prior

5/30

9:00

HIGH

Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (MAY)

2.8%

2.8%

5/30

9:00

MEDIUM

Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (APR)

9.9%

9.9%

Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact the author of this report, please send inquiries to:mboutros@dailyfx.com

You can also follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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