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Haven Flows See Signs of Exhaustion- Aussie Rebounds Off Lows

Haven Flows See Signs of Exhaustion- Aussie Rebounds Off Lows

2011-05-25 14:55:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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Haven_Flows_See_Signs_of_Exhaustion-_Aussie_Rebounds_Off_Lows_body_Picture_2.png, Haven Flows See Signs of Exhaustion- Aussie Rebounds Off LowsHaven_Flows_See_Signs_of_Exhaustion-_Aussie_Rebounds_Off_Lows_body_Picture_3.png, Haven Flows See Signs of Exhaustion- Aussie Rebounds Off LowsHaven_Flows_See_Signs_of_Exhaustion-_Aussie_Rebounds_Off_Lows_body_Picture_4.png, Haven Flows See Signs of Exhaustion- Aussie Rebounds Off Lows

The Swiss franc was the best performer against the dollar overnight with and an advance of 0.43%. Concerns over Greece’s fiscal woes continue to see haven flows into the swissie which hit fresh all-time highs against the euro. The USD/CHF pair encountered support at the 0.8750 level before paring gains to 0.8770. The pair remains in a descending channel dating back to May 13th with downside targets seen at 0.8740, 0.8710, and 0.8680. Interim resistance stands at 0.8780 with subsequent ceilings eyed at the 23.6% Fibonacci extension taken from the May 4th and the overnight lows at 0.8832 and 0.8850.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

50-Day SMA

0.8926

20-Day SMA

0.8765

10-Day SMA

0.8818

2011 High

0.8551

Upcoming Events

Date

GMT

Importance

Release

Expected

Prior

5/26

6:00

MEDIUM

Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (APR)

-

1.09B

5/26

6:00

LOW

Exports (MoM) (APR)

-

-4.8%

5/26

6:00

LOW

Imports (MoM) (APR)

-

1.3%

Haven_Flows_See_Signs_of_Exhaustion-_Aussie_Rebounds_Off_Lows_body_Picture_5.png, Haven Flows See Signs of Exhaustion- Aussie Rebounds Off LowsHaven_Flows_See_Signs_of_Exhaustion-_Aussie_Rebounds_Off_Lows_body_Picture_6.png, Haven Flows See Signs of Exhaustion- Aussie Rebounds Off Lows

The Australian dollar continued to suffer at the hands of the greenback overnight as risk-aversion flows saw higher yielding currencies come off. The aussie fell as low as 1.0440 before paring losses back above the 61.8% Fibonacci extension taken from the May 11th and 20th crests at 1.0470. Interim support now holds at this level, with a downside break eyeing a retest of 1.0440 and 1.0420. Relative strength suggests the aussie may still have further room to the upside before testing new lows. Topside resistance is seen at the 50% extension at 1.0520 followed by the 38.2% extension at 1.0565.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

50-Day SMA

1.0526

20-Day SMA

1.0698

10-Day SMA

1.0594

2011 High

1.1010

Upcoming Events

Date

GMT

Importance

Release

Expected

Prior

5/26

0:30

MEDIUM

CBAHIA House Affordability (1Q)

-

53.5

5/26

1:30

MEDIUM

Private Capital Expenditure (1Q)

2.7%

1.3%

Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact the author of this report, please send inquiries to:mboutros@dailyfx.com

You can also follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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