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Yen Strength Prevails- Kiwi Testing Key Support

Yen Strength Prevails- Kiwi Testing Key Support

2011-05-13 14:39:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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Daily Winners and Losers

Yen_Strength_Prevails-_Kiwi_Testing_Key_Support_body_Picture_2.png, Yen Strength Prevails- Kiwi Testing Key SupportYen_Strength_Prevails-_Kiwi_Testing_Key_Support_body_Picture_3.png, Yen Strength Prevails- Kiwi Testing Key SupportYen_Strength_Prevails-_Kiwi_Testing_Key_Support_body_Picture_4.png, Yen Strength Prevails- Kiwi Testing Key Support

The yen topped performance charts against the dollar overnight for a second day after breaking through the lower bound trend line support of the ascending channel that has held the pair since April 5th. As the dollar surrendered some of the gains seen earlier in the week the yen surged, finding support the 80.50 level. CPI data out of the US saw the greenback briefly climb against the yen before paring gains after testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level taken from the mid-April advance at 80.90. The yen’s advance will continue to fuel speculation about possible intervention from the Bank of Japan and has traders reluctant to push the currency too quickly. The outlook for the yen remains neutral here noting interim support at 80.50, with subsequent floors eyed at 80.20 and the 80-handle. Topside resistance holds at the 80.90 backed by 81.30 and 81.80.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

50-Day SMA

82.04

20-Day SMA

81.33

10-Day SMA

80.70

2011 High

85.51

Yen_Strength_Prevails-_Kiwi_Testing_Key_Support_body_Picture_5.png, Yen Strength Prevails- Kiwi Testing Key SupportYen_Strength_Prevails-_Kiwi_Testing_Key_Support_body_Picture_6.png, Yen Strength Prevails- Kiwi Testing Key Support

The kiwi was the worst performer against the greenback overnight after breaking support at the 79.20 level in pre-market trade. The short-term channel that emerged yesterday remains intact for now, with the dollar attempting to break support at the 0.7890 level early in the North American session. A break here sees targets lower at 0.7860 backed by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension taken from the May 17th and April 2nd crests at 0.7830. Interim resistance now stands at 0.7920 followed by the 100% Fib extension at 0.7940 and the 76.4% extension at 0.7980. It’s worth noting that our contrarian Speculative Sentiment index shows traders remaining net short the pair, suggesting the kiwi may see some strength in the days to come.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

50-Day SMA

0.7720

20-Day SMA

0.7965

10-Day SMA

0.7929

2011 High

0.8120

Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact the author of this report, please send inquiries to:mboutros@dailyfx.com

You can also follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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