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Japanese Yen Traders Fade The Rally, Australian Dollar At Risk For Breakout

Japanese Yen Traders Fade The Rally, Australian Dollar At Risk For Breakout

2011-03-16 16:45:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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Daily Winners and Losers

Japanese_Yen_Traders_Fade_The_Rally_Australian_Dollar_At_Risk_For_Breakout_body_ScreenShot028.png, Japanese Yen Traders Fade The Rally, Australian Dollar At Risk For Breakout

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

USDJPY

80.18

81.17

79.98

52

119

Japanese_Yen_Traders_Fade_The_Rally_Australian_Dollar_At_Risk_For_Breakout_body_ScreenShot027.png, Japanese Yen Traders Fade The Rally, Australian Dollar At Risk For Breakout

The Japanese Yen continued to outperform against its major counterparts as market sentiment remained batter on Wednesday, and the low-yielding currency may appreciate further going into the end of the week as the flight to safety gathers pace. The USD/JPY remains 50+pips lower on the day after moving 152% of its average true range, and the sharp selloff in the exchange rate may accelerate as it clears the 2010 low at 80.23. However, as the dollar-yen remains oversold, a small correction could unfold going into the Asian trade, and a rebound in the exchange rate could lead the pair to fill-in the gap from the 120-SMA at 81.30 as the relative strength index bounces back from a low of 22. At the same time, the marked selloff in the dollar-yen certainly rises the risk for a currency intervention as the Bank of Japan takes extraordinary steps to ensure financial stability, and the USD/JPY may turn increasingly volatile in the coming days as global policy makers try to assess the aftermath of the devastating earthquake in the Asia/Pacific region. Indeed, retail traders are heavily net long against the dollar-yen as the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment index currently stands at 8.41, but the efforts to catch the bottom may fail to bear fruit as the contrarian indicator continues to reinforce a bearish outlook for the pair.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

20-Day SMA

82.16

10-Day SMA

81.96

2011 Low

79.98

Daily RSI

29

Upcoming Events

GMT

Importance

Release

Expected

Prior

23:50

LOW

Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JAN)

1.4%

-0.8%

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

AUDUSD

0.9858

0.9963

0.9827

51

136

Japanese_Yen_Traders_Fade_The_Rally_Australian_Dollar_At_Risk_For_Breakout_body_ScreenShot026.png, Japanese Yen Traders Fade The Rally, Australian Dollar At Risk For Breakout

The small rebound in the Australian dollar was certainly short-lived as the exchange rate fell back to a low of 0.9827 during the North American trade, and the high-yielding currency may break out of the broad range from earlier this year as investors scale back their appetite for yields. The AUD/USD remains 50 points lower from the open after moving 123% of its ATR, and the sharp decline in the exchange rate may gather pace over the next 24 hours of trading as fears surrounding the global economy continues to bear down on market sentiment. A break below 0.9800 should lead the AUD/USD to pare the advance from the end of 2010, and the exchange rate may work its way towards the 200-Day SMA at 0.9558 to test for near-term support. However, as retail traders remain net short against the aussie-dollar, we may see the pair recoup the losses from earlier this week, and the exchange rate may continue to trend sideways over the near-term as investors weigh the outlook for the global economy.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

50-Day SMA

1.0033

100-Day SMA

0.9979

200-Day SMA

0.9558

Daily RSI

36

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFX Forums

To discuss this report contact David Song, Currency Analyst: dsong@dailyfx.com

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