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Japanese Yen Eyes 2010 Highs (USD/JPY Lows), Australian Dollar Tests 2011 Range

Japanese Yen Eyes 2010 Highs (USD/JPY Lows), Australian Dollar Tests 2011 Range

2011-03-15 15:52:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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Japanese_Yen_Eyes_2010_Highs_USDJPY_Lows_Australian_Dollar_Tests_2011_Range_body_ScreenShot015.png, Japanese Yen Eyes 2010 Highs (USD/JPY Lows), Australian Dollar Tests 2011 Range

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

USDJPY

80.95

82.01

80.73

67

128

Japanese_Yen_Eyes_2010_Highs_USDJPY_Lows_Australian_Dollar_Tests_2011_Range_body_ScreenShot014.png, Japanese Yen Eyes 2010 Highs (USD/JPY Lows), Australian Dollar Tests 2011 Range

The near-term rally in the Japanese Yen gathered pace on Tuesday, with the USD/JPY falling back to a low of 80.73, but the exchange rate may hold steady ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision at 18:15 GMT as market participants weigh the prospects for future policy. The dollar-yen remains nearly 70 points lower from the open after moving 173% of its average true range, and the pair may consolidate throughout the North American trade as the relative strength index bounces back from oversold territory. As the oscillator climbs back from a low of 21, the rebound could produce a small correction in the exchange rate, but comments from the FOMC could spark a mixed reaction in the currency market as the fundamental outlook for the global economy remains clouded with high uncertainty. However, as the USD/JPY continues to hold within the previous day’s range, the correction could gather pace over the next 24 hours of trading, which could lead the pair to close the gap from the 120-SMA at 81.89. Nevertheless, as market participants expect Japanese investors to repatriate their funds following the natural disaster, demands for the low-yielding currency could spur another selloff in the dollar-yen, and the pair may work its way back towards the 2010 lows as it searches for support.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

50-Day SMA

0.9484

20-Day SMA

0.9352

10-Day SMA

0.9284

2011 Low

0.9201

Upcoming Events

GMT

Importance

Release

Expected

Prior

23:50

MED

BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (1Q)

--

-5

23:50

MED

BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (1Q)

--

-8

4:00

LOW

Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (FEB)

--

-13.5%

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

AUDUSD

0.9905

1.0107

0.9816

191

291

Japanese_Yen_Eyes_2010_Highs_USDJPY_Lows_Australian_Dollar_Tests_2011_Range_body_ScreenShot016.gif, Japanese Yen Eyes 2010 Highs (USD/JPY Lows), Australian Dollar Tests 2011 Range

The Australian dollar extended the decline from the previous day as the flight to safety gathered pace, but the small correction in the exchange rate may push the currency higher going into the Asian trade as it maintains the broad range from earlier this year. The AUD/USD is 190+pips lower on the day after moving 272% of its ATR, and the rebound from 0.9816 could lead the pair to cover the gap from the 120-SMA at 1.0036 as the RSI bounces back from oversold territory. In turn, currency traders certainly have a great opportunity to play the range-bound price action in the aussie-dollar, and the pair should continue to trend sideways over the near-term as 20, 50, and 100 day moving averages remain relatively flat. However, as market sentiment remains battered by the uncertainties surrounding the global economy, the Australian dollar may face additional headwinds going forward, and there could be a bearish breakout in the AUD/USD as investors scale back their appetite for risk.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

20-Day SMA

1.0093

50-Day SMA

1.0036

100-Day SMA

0.9977

2011 Low

0.9803

Upcoming Events

GMT

Importance

Release

Expected

Prior

23:30

LOW

Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (JAN)

--

0.8%

0:30

MED

Dwelling Starts (4Q)

-1.4%

-13.2%

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

To discuss this report contact David Song, Currency Analyst: dsong@dailyfx.com

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