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Japanese Yen To Hold Range, Australian Dollar Reversal Slows Ahead Of 100-Day SMA

Japanese Yen To Hold Range, Australian Dollar Reversal Slows Ahead Of 100-Day SMA

2011-03-10 17:01:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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Japanese_Yen_To_Hold_Range_Australian_Dollar_Reversal_Slows_Ahead_Of_100-Day_SMA_body_ScreenShot040.png, Japanese Yen To Hold Range, Australian Dollar Reversal Slows Ahead Of 100-Day SMA

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

USDJPY

82.98

83.17

82.70

25

47

Japanese_Yen_To_Hold_Range_Australian_Dollar_Reversal_Slows_Ahead_Of_100-Day_SMA_body_ScreenShot039.png, Japanese Yen To Hold Range, Australian Dollar Reversal Slows Ahead Of 100-Day SMA

The Japanese Yen continued to lose ground against the greenback on Thursday, with the USD/JPY advancing to a fresh monthly high of 83.17, and the pair may push higher going into the end of the week as it retraces the sharp decline from the previous month. The dollar-yen remains 25 points higher on the day after moving 82% of its average true range, and the advance in the exchange rate may gather pace over the near-term as the greenback benefits from the flight to safety. As the USD/JPY maintains the broad range from earlier this year, there could be an opportunity to fade the rally in the days ahead, and we may see the pair carve out another top around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2010 high to low, which lies between 83.60-80. However, as the relative strength index falls back from overbought territory, the dollar-yen may consolidate before we see another push to the upside, and the exchange rate may fill the gap from the 120-SMA at 82.73 heading into the Asian trade.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

20-Day SMA

82.65

100-Day SMA

82.61

50-Day SMA

82.51

10-Day SMA

82.23

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

AUDUSD

1.0001

1.0118

0.9992

105

126

Japanese_Yen_To_Hold_Range_Australian_Dollar_Reversal_Slows_Ahead_Of_100-Day_SMA_body_ScreenShot041.gif, Japanese Yen To Hold Range, Australian Dollar Reversal Slows Ahead Of 100-Day SMA

The aussie took a hit during the overnight trade as China, Australia’s largest trading partner, posted the largest trade deficit in seven years, and the high-yielding currency may face headwinds over the near-term as the outlook for global trade deteriorates. The AUD/USD remains 100+pips lower from the open after moving 138% of its ATR, but the sharp decline appears to be tapering off as the RSI bounces back from oversold territory. In turn, we may see a short-term reversal in the aussie-dollar, and the exchange rate may revert back to the 240-SMA at 1.0106 as price action continues to hold above the 100-Day SMA at 0.9972. As a result, the aussie-dollar may continue to face range-bounce price action throughout the remainder of the month, and currency traders certainly have a great setup to play the range as the pair remains capped by 1.0200. However, as the Reserve Bank of Australian maintains a neutral outlook for future policy, the downturn in interest rate expectations is likely to bear down on the exchange rate, and the AUD/USD certainly remains at risk for a bearish breakout as the pair carves out a second top in March.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

10-Day SMA

1.0126

20-Day SMA

1.0087

50-Day SMA

1.0042

100-Day SMA

0.9972

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

To discuss this report contact David Song, Currency Analyst: dsong@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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