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Swiss Franc To Hold Range, New Zealand Dollar Searches For Support

Swiss Franc To Hold Range, New Zealand Dollar Searches For Support

2011-02-22 16:42:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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Swiss_Franc_To_Hold_Range_New_Zealand_Dollar_Searches_For_Support_body_ScreenShot037.png, Swiss Franc To Hold Range, New Zealand Dollar Searches For Support

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

USDCHF

0.9395

0.9506

0.938

71

126

Swiss_Franc_To_Hold_Range_New_Zealand_Dollar_Searches_For_Support_body_ScreenShot035.png, Swiss Franc To Hold Range, New Zealand Dollar Searches For Support

The Swiss Franc advanced across the board on Tuesday following the flight to safety, and the rally in the low-yielding currency may gather pace over the next 24 hours of trading as risk sentiment continues to dictate price action in the foreign exchange market. The USD/CHF is 70+ points lower on the day after moving 119% of its average true range, and the exchange rate may make another run a 0.9300 as it searches for support. However, as the relative strength index bounces back from a low of 19, we may see a small correction in the dollar-franc later today, which could lead the pair to work its way back towards the 120-SMA at 0.9470. Nevertheless, as the USD/CHF maintains the range carried over from earlier this year, currency traders may look to take advantage of the sideways price action, and we should see the pair maintain the 500 point range going forward as the moving averages (10, 20, and 50 day) converge with one another.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

100-Day SMA

0.9669

10-Day SMA

0.9575

50-Day SMA

0.9555

20-Day SMA

0.9521

Upcoming Events

GMT

Importance

Release

Expected

Prior

8:15

LOW

Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JAN)

0.1%

0.3%

8:15

LOW

Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JAN)

0.0%

0.3%

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

NZDUSD

0.7494

0.7641

0.7455

142

186

Swiss_Franc_To_Hold_Range_New_Zealand_Dollar_Searches_For_Support_body_ScreenShot036.png, Swiss Franc To Hold Range, New Zealand Dollar Searches For Support

The New Zealand dollar broke below support as the exchange rate slipped to a fresh monthly low of 0.7455, but the small rebound in the exchange rate may gather pace going into the Asian trade as the relative strength index bounces back from oversold territory. The NZD/USD remains 140+pips lower from the open after moving 225% of its ATR, and the pair may work its way back towards the 240-SMA at 0.7570 if the rebound in the exchange rate gathers pace. However, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2008 high to the 2009 low around 0.7500 may act as new resistance going forward as the kiwi-dollar struggles to retrace the sharp decline from the overnight trade, and the exchange rate may push lower going into the middle of the week as it carves out a top on February. There could be scope to short the NZD/USD as it breaks out of its current range, but would like to see confirmation (resistance holding at 0.7500) of what appears to be a downward trend in the exchange rate before selling the pair.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

20-Day SMA

0.7660

200-Day SMA

0.7354

Former Support

0.7500

Daily RSI

38

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

To discuss this report contact David Song, Currency Analyst: dsong@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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