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Swiss Franc Outperforms, Canadian Dollar Struggles To Hold Ground

Swiss Franc Outperforms, Canadian Dollar Struggles To Hold Ground

2011-02-17 17:29:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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Daily Winners and Losers

Swiss_Franc_Outperforms_Canadian_Dollar_Struggles_To_Hold_Ground_body_ScreenShot013.png, Swiss Franc Outperforms, Canadian Dollar Struggles To Hold Ground

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

USDCHF

0.9512

0.9602

0.9478

81

124

Swiss_Franc_Outperforms_Canadian_Dollar_Struggles_To_Hold_Ground_body_ScreenShot011.png, Swiss Franc Outperforms, Canadian Dollar Struggles To Hold Ground

The Swiss franc continued to outperform against its major counterparts, with the USD/CHF slipping to a fresh weekly low of 0.9478, and the rebound in the low-yielding currency may gather pace going into the end of the week as investors diversify away from the greenback. The dollar-franc remains 80+pips lower from the open after moving 118% of its average true range, but the two-day decline appears to be tapering off during the North American trade as the relative strength index bounces back from oversold territory. In turn, we may see the USD/CHF consolidate going into the Asian session, and the pair may look to close the gap from the 120-SMA at 0.9633 if we see the rebound in the exchange rate gather pace. However, as the dollar-franc carves out a near-term top in February, the pair is likely to retrace the advance from earlier this month, and currency traders may have an opportunity to take advantage of the range-bound price action as the pair trades within 0.9300-0.9800.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

100-Day SMA

0.9678

50-Day SMA

0.9571

20-Day SMA

0.9530

Support

0.9300

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

USDCAD

0.9836

0.9859

0.9816

12

43

Swiss_Franc_Outperforms_Canadian_Dollar_Struggles_To_Hold_Ground_body_ScreenShot012.png, Swiss Franc Outperforms, Canadian Dollar Struggles To Hold Ground

The Canadian dollar struggled to hold its ground on Thursday as the USD/CAD bounced back from a fresh yearly low of 0.9816, and the rebound in the exchange rate may gather pace over the near-term as it comes up against trend line support. The dollar-loonie is still 10+ points lower on the day after moving 60% of its ATR, and the rebound in the RSI could lead the exchange rate to work its way back towards the 120-SMA at 0.9862 as the pair continues to trade within the downward trending channel carried over from the previous year. In turn, we should see a small correction in the USD/CAD, but a near-term rally in the exchange rate is likely to be short-lived as price action remains capped by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2007 low to the 2009 high around 0.9900. However, as market participants expect price growth in Canada to hold steady in January, the fundamental development could bear down on the exchange rate, and market participants may scale back speculation for another round of monetary tightening as the rise in growth and inflation cools. If the report fails to meet market expectations, we may see a bullish breakout in the USD/CAD, and the exchange rate may make another run at the 50-Day SMA (0.9968) after it failed to break above the moving average earlier this month.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

50-Day SMA

0.9968

20-Day SMA

0.9919

10-Day SMA

0.9895

2011 Low

0.9816

Upcoming Events

GMT

Importance

Release

Expected

Prior

12:00

MED

Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

0.3%

0.0%

12:00

HIGH

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

2.4%

2.4%

12:00

MED

Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (JAN)

0.1%

-0.3%

12:00

MED

Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JAN)

1.5%

1.5%

12:00

MED

Consumer Price Index (JAN)

--

117.5

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFX Forums.

To discuss this report contact David Song, Currency Analyst: dsong@dailyfx.com

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