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Swiss Franc Offers Range-Trade Opportunities, Euro Extends Decline Ahead Of 4Q GDP

Swiss Franc Offers Range-Trade Opportunities, Euro Extends Decline Ahead Of 4Q GDP

2011-02-14 17:11:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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Swiss_Franc_Offers_Range-Trade_Opportunities_Euro_Extends_Decline_Ahead_Of_4Q_GDP_body_ScreenShot007.png, Swiss Franc Offers Range-Trade Opportunities, Euro Extends Decline Ahead Of 4Q GDP

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

USDCHF

0.9700

0.9749

0.9692

35

57

Swiss_Franc_Offers_Range-Trade_Opportunities_Euro_Extends_Decline_Ahead_Of_4Q_GDP_body_ScreenShot006.png, Swiss Franc Offers Range-Trade Opportunities, Euro Extends Decline Ahead Of 4Q GDP

The Swiss franc rallied against its major counterparts on Monday, with the USD/CHF slipping to a low of 0.9692, and the low-yielding currency may continue to retrace the decline from the previous week as it benefits from the rise in safe-haven flows. The dollar-franc remains nearly 40 points lower on the day after moving 53% of its average true range, and the exchange rate may push lower going into the Asian trade as the near-term rally tapers off ahead of the January high at 0.9783. In turn, the reversal in the dollar-franc should gather pace in the days ahead, but we may see the exchange rate may hold steady over the next 12-hours of trading as the pair appears to have found intraday support ahead of the 100-Day moving average at 0.9684. As a result, the USD/CHF may trade along the 120-SMA at 0.9699 throughout the remainder of the day, but the pair should maintain the broad range from earlier this year, which presents retail trades with an opportunity to fade the recent advance in the exchange rate. As the short-term moving averages (10, 20, 50 day) converge with one another, the technical developments suggest that we will continue to see the dollar-franc trend sideways going forward, and we may see the exchange rate fall back towards 0.9300 as it looks to retrace the rally from earlier this month.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

100-Day SMA

0.9684

50-Day SMA

0.9587

10-Day SMA

0.9564

20-Day SMA

0.9536

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

EURUSD

1.3468

1.3559

1.3428

84

131

Swiss_Franc_Offers_Range-Trade_Opportunities_Euro_Extends_Decline_Ahead_Of_4Q_GDP_body_ScreenShot008.gif, Swiss Franc Offers Range-Trade Opportunities, Euro Extends Decline Ahead Of 4Q GDP

The Euro extended the decline from the previous week to reach a fresh monthly low of 1.3428, and the single-currency may continue to retrace the advance from earlier this year as it searches for support. The EUR/USD is 80+ pips lower on the day after moving 95% of its ATR, but we may see a short-term rebound in the exchange rate emerge later today as the relative strength index bounces back from oversold territory. In turn, the euro-dollar may look to fill-in the gap from the 120-SMA at 1.3555, and a marked expansion in the Euro-Zone 4Q GDP could spark a sharp reversal in the exchange rate as the outlook for future growth improves. However, as the risk for contagion intensifies, with market participants speculation Portugal to share Ireland’s ill fate, a correction in the exchange rate is likely to be short-lived, and the single-currency is expected to face additional headwinds going forward as the EU maintains a relaxed approach in addressing the sovereign debt crisis. As a result, the head-and-shoulders top in the EUR/USD may continue to develop in the days ahead, and the pair may fall back towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.3100-20 as it looks to retrace the advance from the previous month.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

20-Day SMA

1.3621

100-Day SMA

1.3541

50-Day SMA

1.3367

200-Day SMA

1.3106

Upcoming Events

GMT

Importance

Release

Expected

Prior

7:00

MED

German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (4Q P)

0.5%

0.7%

7:00

MED

German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (4Q P)

4.1%

3.9%

7:00

MED

German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q P)

4.1%

3.9%

10:00

HIGH

Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (4Q A)

0.4%

0.3%

10:00

MED

Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (4Q A)

2.1%

1.9%

10:00

MED

Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (FEB)

28.5

25.4

10:00

MED

German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (FEB)

20.0

15.4

10:00

MED

German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (FEB)

83.0

82.8

10:00

LOW

Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (DEC)

-0.2B

-1.9B

10:00

LOW

Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (DEC)

1.1B

-0.4B

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

To discuss this report contact David Song, Currency Analyst: instructor@dailyfx.com

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