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New Zealand Dollar Rally At Risk, Swiss Franc Weakness To Be Short-Lived

New Zealand Dollar Rally At Risk, Swiss Franc Weakness To Be Short-Lived

2011-02-08 16:56:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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New_Zealand_Dollar_Rally_At_Risk_Swiss_Franc_Weakness_To_Be_Short-Lived_body_ScreenShot036.png, New Zealand Dollar Rally At Risk, Swiss Franc Weakness To Be Short-Lived

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

NZDUSD

0.7776

0.7781

0.7696

79

85

New_Zealand_Dollar_Rally_At_Risk_Swiss_Franc_Weakness_To_Be_Short-Lived_body_ScreenShot037.gif, New Zealand Dollar Rally At Risk, Swiss Franc Weakness To Be Short-Lived

The New Zealand dollar extended the advance from earlier this week as currency traders increased their appetite for risk, and the high-yielding currency may continue to retrace the decline from the previous week as it maintains the upward trend from back in late December. The NZD/USD is nearly 80 pips higher from the open after moving 101% of its average true range, and the near-term rally may gather pace going into the Asian trade as risk sentiment continues to dictate price action in the currency market. However, as the relative strength index falls back from a high of 76, we should see the kiwi-dollar consolidate throughout the North American session, and the exchange rate may fall back towards the 240-SMA at 0.7741 unless the rise in risk appetite gathers pace. At the same time, there appears to be a bearish RSI divergence in the daily chart, and the technical development could lead to a reversal as the oscillator continues to come off of its recent highs.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

10-Day SMA

0.7732

20-Day SMA

0.7696

50-Day SMA

0.7605

Daily RSI

59

Upcoming Events

GMT

Importance

Release

Expected

Prior

21:45

LOW

NZ Card Spending (JAN)

--

-0.9%

Currency

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (pip)

Daily Range (pip)

USDCHF

0.9588

0.9603

0.9524

34

79

New_Zealand_Dollar_Rally_At_Risk_Swiss_Franc_Weakness_To_Be_Short-Lived_body_ScreenShot0380.gif, New Zealand Dollar Rally At Risk, Swiss Franc Weakness To Be Short-Lived

The Swiss franc weakened across the board on Tuesday, with the USD/CHF rallying to a high of 0.9603, but the near-term advance in the pair is likely to be short-lived as it appears to be carving a top around the 50-Day SMA (0.9602). The dollar-franc is 30+ points higher on the day after moving 76% of its ATR, and the rise in risk appetite may push the exchange rate higher as the relative strength index crosses into overbought territory. However, once the oscillator falls back below 70, we should see a correction in the exchange rate, and the pair should close the gap from the 240-SMA at 0.9471 as it maintains the downward trend from back in December. In turn, I sold the USDCHF at 0.9555 during the previous day and I am looking for a test of former support around 0.9400 as the near-term rally tapers off.

Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator

Level

50-Day SMA

0.9602

20-Day SMA

0.9527

10-Day SMA

0.9460

2010 Low

0.9300

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums

To discuss this report contact David Song, Currency Analyst: instructor@dailyfx.com

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