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Swiss Franc Outperforms, Euro Continues to Lag Behind

Swiss Franc Outperforms, Euro Continues to Lag Behind

2010-05-06 15:23:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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05.06_DWL1

The Swiss Franc halted the three-day decline against the greenback and is the best-performing currency amongst the majors on Thursday as  faster inflation gives scope for the Swiss National Bank to slow its pace of intervention in the foreign exchange market. The USD/CHF remains nearly 130pips lower on the day after moving 198% of its average true range, but the sell-off appears to have tapered off at a low of 1.1017 as the 30-minute RSI bounces back ahead of oversold territory. At the same time, the daily RSI has fallen back from a high of 73 as the dollar-franc pulled back from the fresh yearly high of 1.1245, and the pair may trade along the 120-SMA at 1.1062 ahead of the Asian trade as investors weigh the prospects for future policy. Market participants speculate the SNB will allow the Swiss Franc to appreciate further as the outlook for growth and inflation improves, and the ongoing uncertainties surrounding the outlook for public finances in the Euro-Zone could drive the safe-haven currency higher as policy makers struggle to manage the risks for contagion.

05.06_DWL2


05.06_DWL3

The Euro extended the decline from earlier this week and slipped to a fresh yearly low of 1.2691 as European policy makers expressed concerns that the Greek crisis could spill over into the rest of the countries operating under the fixed-exchange rate system. The EUR/USD is currently 70pips lower from the open after moving 116% of its daily ATR, and the exchange rate may continue to trend lower going into the end of the week as the ongoing uncertainties tied to the deterioration in public finances weighs on the prospects for a sustainable recovery. As a result, the euro-dollar may continue to trend lower on Friday as investors speculate the European Central Bank to maintain a loose policy stance throughout the second-half of the year, but we may see a corrective retracement in the following week as the daily RSI pushes deep into oversold territory.

05.06_DWL4

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To discuss this report contact David Song, Currency Analyst: instructor@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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