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New Zealand Dollar Continues to Outperform, Swiss Franc Pares Advance

New Zealand Dollar Continues to Outperform, Swiss Franc Pares Advance

2010-03-29 06:12:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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03.29_DWL1

The New Zealand dollar extended the rally from the previous week and is the best performing currency against the greenback during the overnight trade, but the exchange rate continued to maintain the narrow range from the previous week after finding near-term support at the 200-Day SMA (0.7008). The NZD/USD is nearly 50pips higher from the open after moving 64% of its daily ATR, but the lack of momentum to hold above the 10-Day SMA at 0.7075 could drive the exchange rate lower as the 30-minute RSI appears to have stalled ahead of the overbought territory. As a result, we may see the kiwi-dollar pare the overnight rally and fall back towards the 240-SMA at 0.7047, which coincide with the 120-SMA, but the rise in risk appetite could push the exchange rate higher going into the European trade as the U.S. dollar remains the most popular funding-currency, next to the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc.

03.29_DWL2


03.29_DWL3

The Swiss Franc pared the overnight advance against the U.S. dollar, with the exchange rate rising to a high of 1.0686, and the exchange rate may push higher going into the European session and test the upper bounds of its recent range. The USD/CHF is 40pips higher on the day after moving 126% of its average true range, and we could see the pair test the 120-SMA at 1.0696 later today as the 30-minute RSI bounces back from oversold territory. As a result, a break above the 120-SMA could lead the pair to test the previous week’s high at 1.0750, but if price action continue to hold below 1.0700, the exchange rate is likely to fall back below the 240-SMA at 1.0651 as the near-term rally fails to retrace the decline from earlier this month.

03.29_DWL4

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To discuss this report contact David Song, Currency Analyst: instructor@dailyfx.com

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