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Japanese Yen Benefits From Risk Aversion, New Zealand Dollar Falters

Japanese Yen Benefits From Risk Aversion, New Zealand Dollar Falters

2010-03-22 15:48:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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03.22_DWL1

The Japanese Yen pushed higher on Monday and is currently the best performing currency against the greenback, and the exchange rate may continue to push lower going into the Asian trade as investors scaled back their appetite for risk. The USD/JPY is nearly 20pips lower from the open after moving 110% of its daily ATR, but the lack of momentum to hold below the 20-Day SMA at 89.88 may keep the pair within the narrow range carried over from the previous week as investors weigh the outlook for the global recovery. However, as the 30-minute RSI bounces back from oversold territory, we may see the dollar-yen pare the decline and fill-in the gap from the 240-SMA, which coincides with the 120-SMA at 90.39. Nevertheless, market participants are certainly speculating the People’s Bank of China to raise borrowing costs over the coming months following the unexpected rate hike by the Reserve Bank of India, and the shift in monetary policy may continue to weigh on investor sentiment as the government looks to taper the marked expansion in the economy.

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The New Zealand dollar tumbled lower against its U.S. counterpart, with the exchange rate slipping to a low of 0.7002, and the high-yielding currency may continue to trend lower over the coming month as the near-term rally fails to retrace the decline from earlier this year. The NZD/USD is currently 34pips lower on the day after moving 101% of its average true range, and the 120-SMA (0.7104) looks poised to cross back below the 240-SMA at 0.7095, which favors a bearish outlook for the pair. However, as the 30-minute RSI rebounds from a low of 21, the kiwi-dollar may cover the gap from the 240-SMA before we see another move to the downside. Nevertheless, investors are pricing a 7% chance for a 25bp rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at its next meeting on April 28, while 13 of the 14 economists polled forecast the central bank to hold borrowing costs at the record-low of 2.50% according to a Bloomberg News survey, but hawkish commentary following the rate decision could drive the kiwi-dollar higher as the central bank pledges to normalize policy later this year.

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To discuss this report contact David Song, Currency Analyst: instructor@dailyfx.com

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