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New Zealand Dollar Testing 50-Day SMA, Australian Dollar Carving Near-Term Top

New Zealand Dollar Testing 50-Day SMA, Australian Dollar Carving Near-Term Top

2010-03-16 15:38:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
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03.16_DWL1

The New Zealand dollar extended the advance from earlier this week and is currently the best performing currency against the greenback on Tuesday, but the lack of momentum to hold above the 50-Day SMA at 0.7076 may lead the exchange rate to maintain the broad range carried over from the previous month as investors weigh the outlook for future policy. The NZD/USD remains 56pips higher from the open after moving 78% of its daily ATR, but we may see a corrective retracement going into the Asian trade as the 30-minute RSI falls back from a high of 72. As a result, we may see the kiwi-dollar pare the overnight advance later today and fill-in the gap from 240-SMA at 0.7021, which coincides with the 120-SMA, but we are likely to see increased volatility in the exchange rate later today as the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision at 18:15 GMT.

03.16_DWL2


03.16_DWL3

The Australia dollar pared the overnight advance and remains little changed on the day to maintain the narrow range carried over from the previous week. The AUD/USD is nearly 10pips lower on the day after moving only 49% of its average true range, and we may see the exchange rate hold along the 240-SMA 0.9148, which overlaps with the 120-SMA, but comments from the FOMC could stoke a shift in the exchange rate as the central bank pledges to normalize policy this year. Nevertheless, as the aussie-dollar appears to be carving a near-term top just below the 0.9200 level, we may see the pair retrace the advance from the previous month as market participants speculate the Reserve Bank of Australia to adopt a wait-and-see approach over the coming months.

03.16_DWL4

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To discuss this report contact David Song, Currency Analyst: instructor@dailyfx.com

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