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US Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/THB, USD/PHP, USD/SGD, USD/IDR

US Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/THB, USD/PHP, USD/SGD, USD/IDR

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

US Dollar, USD/THB, USD/PHP, USD/SGD, USD/IDR – ASEAN Technical Analysis

  • US Dollar’s rise against ASEAN currencies slowed last week
  • The Thai Baht and Philippine Peso remaining vulnerable
  • Singapore Dollar and Indonesian Rupiah showing resilience
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Thai Baht Technical Outlook – Bullish

The US Dollar extended gains against the Thai Baht this past week. This brought USD/THB to the 2015 high at 36.668. However, the pair was unable to hold a close above it. Prices instead left behind a Shooting Star candlestick pattern. This is a sign of indecision, but it is too early to take it for granted. Further downside confirmation could hint at a turning point. A confirmatory close under the 50-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) could be an increasingly bearish sign. Otherwise, further upside from here would place the focus on the 123.6% Fibonacci extension at 37.458.

USD/THB Daily Chart

USD/THB Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

Philippine Peso Technical Outlook – Slightly Bullish

The US Dollar continued higher against the Philippine Peso this past week. This brought USD/PHP to just shy of the 2005 high at 56.61. Prices did leave behind a Long Legged Doji, a sign of indecision. But, downside confirmation is lacking. Negative RSI divergence does persist, however. Still, both the 20- and 50-day SMAs remain pointing higher, offering an upside technical bias. Breaking under the 20-day line could shift the outlook increasingly bearish. Otherwise, the 223.60% Fibonacci extension at 57.251 lies ahead.

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USD/PHP Daily Chart

USD/PHP Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

Singapore Dollar Technical Outlook – Neutral

The US Dollar was unable to find material direction in either direction against the Singapore Dollar last week. Still, USD/SGD’s uptrend remains intact, offering a slight upside bias. However, there are a couple of early reversal warning signs. The first is a Long Legged Doji candlestick and the second is negative RSI divergence. As such, this is leaving the outlook neutral given that resistance held at 1.4096. Confirming a breakout under the rising trendline from late May could be a sign of a turning point, increasingly shifting the outlook bearish. Otherwise, further gains place the focus on the 100% Fibonacci extension at 1.4238.

USD/SGD Daily Chart

USD/SGD Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

Indonesian Rupiah Technical Outlook – Neutral

The US Dollar was unable to extend its recent advance against the Indonesian Rupiah this past week. USD/IDR continues to hover just above highs from September 2020, which seems to be functioning as immediate support. A Shooting Star candlestick pattern remains in play, but downside follow-through has been notably lacking. Negative RSI divergence also persists. A confirmatory break under the 20-day SMA could increasingly shift the outlook bearish. Otherwise, pushing above the 138.20% Fibonacci extension at 15039 exposes the 150% level at 15092.

USD/IDR Daily Chart

USD/IDR Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

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