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US Dollar Forecast: Thai Baht Aims for Best Month Since 2019. SGD, IDR, PHP Idle

US Dollar Forecast: Thai Baht Aims for Best Month Since 2019. SGD, IDR, PHP Idle

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

US Dollar, USD/THB, USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/PHP – ASEAN Technical Analysis

  • US Dollar volatility remains most low against ASEAN currencies
  • Thai Baht is setting course for the best month since early 2019
  • USD/SGD, USD/IDR and USD/PHP remain mostly range-bound

Thai Baht Technical Outlook – Bearish

The US Dollar extended losses against the Thai Baht this past week. USD/THB closed at its lowest level since June 2021. In fact, February is shaping up to be the best month for the Thai Baht since January 2019. Prices closed under the August low at 32.196, but follow-through has been lacking. A further downside close may hint at resuming the downtrend. This is a bearish Death Cross is now in play between the 20- and 200-day SMA. Key support below appears to be the 31.493 – 31.606 inflection zone.

USD/THB Daily Chart

US Dollar Forecast: Thai Baht Aims for Best Month Since 2019. SGD, IDR, PHP Idle

Chart Created in TradingView

Singapore DollarTechnical Outlook – Neutral

The Singapore Dollar continues to consolidate and remains pretty much unchanged against the US Dollar since the beginning of this year. USD/SGD still faces the key 1.3381 – 1.3419 support zone, which it has struggled to pierce. Positive RSI divergence continues to remain in play, showing fading upside momentum. That can at times precede a turn higher. Immediate resistance appears to be the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), with the 50-day line above. Clearing support exposes the 100% Fibonacci extension at 1.3350.

USD/SGD Daily Chart

US Dollar Forecast: Thai Baht Aims for Best Month Since 2019. SGD, IDR, PHP Idle

Chart Created in TradingView

Indonesian Rupiah Technical Outlook - Neutral

The US Dollar consolidated against the Indonesian Rupiah this past week. USD/IDR continues to trade between converging trendlines. Falling resistance from April 2021 is trying to guide the pair lower as rising support from October offers a floor. In addition to the trendline above, the 14370 – 14402 resistance zone is a key ceiling. Extending gains above the latter exposes the November peak at 14438. On the downside, clearing the 14190 – 14223 inflection range exposes the October low at 14075.

USD/IDR Daily Chart

US Dollar Forecast: Thai Baht Aims for Best Month Since 2019. SGD, IDR, PHP Idle

Chart Created in TradingView

Philippine Peso Technical Outlook - Neutral

The US Dollar continues to struggle finding upside momentum against the Philippine Peso as USD/PHP ranges inside the 51.320 – 51.618 resistance zone. Negative RSI divergence remains present, offering a warning that a turn lower could be in store. Such an outcome could place the focus on the 50-day SMA as well as 50.900. Below the latter is the 23.6% Fibonacci extension at 50.348. If resistance is taken out, that would expose the 2020 high at 52.140.

USD/PHP Daily Chart

US Dollar Forecast: Thai Baht Aims for Best Month Since 2019. SGD, IDR, PHP Idle

Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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