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US Dollar Forecast: More Gains to Follow? USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/IDR, USD/PHP

US Dollar Forecast: More Gains to Follow? USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/IDR, USD/PHP

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

US Dollar, USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/IDR, USD/PHP – ASEAN Technical Analysis

  • US Dollar attempting to rise against ASEAN currencies, key levels hold
  • USD/SGD faces 50-day SMA, USD/THB experienced a false breakout?
  • USD/IDR eyes key trendline, USD/PHP struggling around resistance

Singapore DollarTechnical Outlook – Neutral

The US Dollar is attempting another comeback against the Singapore Dollar after spending most of its time since late November weakening. USD/SGD bounced just above the 1.3381 – 1.3419 support zone last week, climbing to test the midpoint of the Fibonacci retracement at 1.3562. The latter held, causing prices to close just under it.

A bearish Death Cross between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) remains in play, offering a downward technical bias. The 50-day line held, acting out as key resistance. A confirmatory daily close above the latter could open the door to extending gains. Until then, the pair appears to be in a broadly consolidative state.

USD/SGD Daily Chart

US Dollar Forecast: More Gains to Follow? USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/IDR, USD/PHP

Chart Created in TradingView

Thai Baht Technical Outlook - Neutral

The US Dollar is also on the offensive against the Thai Baht, with USD/THB closing at its highest since January 11th last week. The pair bounced off the 200-day SMA, which maintained the broader upside focus. Moreover, the pair is trying to climb back above a long-term rising trendline from 2021. Immediately above appears to be a near-term falling trendline from November – blue line on the daily chart below.

The latter could reinstate a downside focus in the event prices climb in the coming sessions. Otherwise, taking out the trendline exposes the critical 34.000 – 33.861 resistance zone, which has been in play since September. Resuming the downtrend entails a drop through the January 20th close at 32.924. That exposes the November low at 32.562 before facing the August bottom at 32.196.

USD/THB Daily Chart

US Dollar Forecast: More Gains to Follow? USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/IDR, USD/PHP

Chart Created in TradingView

Indonesian RupiahTechnical Outlook - Neutral

The US Dollar also made slight upside progress against the Indonesian Rupiah last week. Still, USD/IDR remains in a broadly consolidative state. The pair is testing the falling trendline from April, which has been guiding the pair lower. Simultaneously, a rising line from late October has been pushing the pair slowly higher.

Rejecting immediate resistance at 14396 opens the door to revisiting the rising trendline. Subsequently taking out the latter exposes the 14223 – 14190 inflection zone before the October low comes into play. Otherwise, extending gains beyond the November peak may pave a path to face the 14465 inflection point.

USD/IDR Daily Chart

US Dollar Forecast: More Gains to Follow? USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/IDR, USD/PHP

Chart Created in TradingView

Philippine Peso Technical Outlook - Neutral

The US Dollar has been struggling to gain ground against the Philippine Peso. Last week, USD/PHP treaded cautiously lower, but prices still remained within the 51.095 – 51.442 inflection zone. This followed a combination of a Shooting Star candlestick pattern and negative RSI divergence.

A daily close under the floor of the resistance zone exposes the 50.790 inflection point before the 23.6% Fibonacci extension at 50.3778 comes into play. Resuming the uptrend has the 61.8% level in sight at 51.7339 before the March 2020 peak at 52.140 appears.

USD/PHP Daily Chart

US Dollar Forecast: More Gains to Follow? USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/IDR, USD/PHP

Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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