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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Outlook Goes from Bad to Worse

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Outlook Goes from Bad to Worse

What's on this page

BTC/USD Technical Outlook:

  • Major level (39558) was broken on Friday
  • Selling has next significant area of support in focus
  • ETH/USD next support level at 1700
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A couple of weeks back when BTC/USD was trying to hold confluent support via a horizontal shelf and trend-line I said, “as long as a close below 39558 doesn’t develop then the outlook is at worst neutral, but likely bullish.”

The reversal on Jan 10 offered would-be longs a decent risk/reward opportunity to buy at support, but as of Friday that idea was stopped out in favor of a major support break. Momentum since that break into today has been fierce.

The breakdown has the next big level of support in focus, and while it could certainly provide a floor for a big bounce, the macro outlook is breaking down as the broad uptrend comes into question. The deep retracement off the highs will soon have the June 2021 swing-low at 28600 in play.

In the context of a strong trend, testing and even worse, breaking, a prior swing low is a major red flag. A good uptrend consists of higher-highs and higher-lows. If the 28600 area holds, then BTC could rally strongly higher and be in the process of creating a broad range dating back to the early part of 2021.

But if support breaks, then BTC may be sufficiently damaged that it will be difficult to recover from. Yes a big bounce could still get underway, but that is all it will be viewed as – a bounce. The bottom line at that point, from a technical perspective, is that BTC/USD may go through an extended bear market lasting quite some time.

For now, will monitor momentum as support arrives from around 30066 down to 28600. A volatile reversal from that area could at least provide an opportunity for short-term traders looking to play an oversold bounce.

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BTC/USD Daily Chart

btc/usd daily chart

BTC/USD Chart by TradingView

ETH/USD I selling off even harder, having lost a third of its value in about a week. The selling looks set to continue until support via three lows created from May to July, all right around the 1700 mark. Like BTC/USD, watch for a volatile reversal to kick off an oversold bounce.

ETH/USD Daily Chart

eth/usd daily chart

ETH/USD Chart by TradingView

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Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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