US Dollar Forecast: Mixed Signals Between USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/IDR, USD/PHP
US Dollar, USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/IDR, USD/PHP – ASEAN Technical Analysis
- US Dollar continues to fax mixed outlook against ASEAN currencies
- USD/SGD downtrend slows, USD/THB breakout hints at more losses
- USD/IDR remains in a consolidative state, USD/PHP eyes resistance
Singapore DollarTechnical Outlook – Slightly Bearish
The US Dollar is trying to hold its ground against the Singapore Dollar after USD/SGD broke under key rising support last week. Follow-through has been noticeably lacking as prices consolidated around the 1.3474 – 1.3502 inflection zone. Positive RSI divergence does show that downside momentum is fading, which can at times precede a turn higher. Still, a bearish ‘Death Cross’ between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages remain in play. Immediate support seems to be the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 1.3453. Clearing this price may open the door to resuming the downtrend towards September lows.
USD/SGD Daily Chart
Thai Baht Technical Outlook - Bearish
The US Dollar is looking increasingly vulnerable to the Thai Baht. USD/THB recently confirmed a breakout under a long-term rising trendline from early 2021. Prices subsequently took out the 32.974 inflection point, exposing the 200-day SMA. The latter could still maintain the broader upside focus, but a breakout opens the door to extend losses towards the November low at 32.562. Below that is the August low at 32.196. Closing back above the rising trendline may see prices pivot higher towards 2021 peaks.
USD/THB Daily Chart
Indonesian RupiahTechnical Outlook - Neutral
The US Dollar recently gained some ground against the Indonesian Rupiah, but USD/IDR remains in a consolidative state. The pair is idling between rising support from October, and falling resistance from March. Clearing resistance, with confirmation, may open the door to extending gains since the end of 2021. That places the focus on 14438 before targeting the June high at 14560. On the other hand, turning lower and clearing rising support exposes the 14190 – 14223 inflection zone before targeting the October low at 14075.
USD/IDR Daily Chart
Philippine Peso Technical Outlook - Neutral
The US Dollar is attempting to breach key resistance against the Philippine Peso. USD/PHP is trying to hold above the 51.095 – 51.442 zone, but recent technical developments do not seem confidence-inspiring. Prices left behind a neutral Shooting Star candlestick pattern. A further downside close could be a bearish signal, especially with negative RSI divergence present. Key support could be the 20-day SMA, which may reinstate the dominant upside focus. Otherwise, immediate resistance appears to be the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 51.7339. Above that is the March 2020 high.
USD/PHP Daily Chart
--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter
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