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US Dollar Outlook: USD/SGD Weakness Eyed. Will USD/THB, USD/IDR, USD/PHP Follow?

US Dollar Outlook: USD/SGD Weakness Eyed. Will USD/THB, USD/IDR, USD/PHP Follow?

Daniel Dubrovsky, Contributor
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US Dollar, USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/IDR, USD/PHP – ASEAN Technical Analysis

  • US Dollar faces mixed outlook against ASEAN currencies
  • USD/SGD looking bearish as prices take out key trendline
  • USD/THB, USD/IDR and USD/PHP remain fairly neutral
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Singapore DollarTechnical Outlook – Bearish

The US Dollar looks increasingly vulnerable to the Singapore Dollar, with USD/SGD taking out a rising trendline from September. Still, confirmation of the breakout is lacking. Further losses place the focus on immediate support, which seems to be the 1.33812 – 1.3419 zone. A bearish Death Cross between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) is also in play, warning at further losses. However, positive RSI divergence does show that downside momentum is fading. The latter can precede a turn higher. Broadly speaking, this is leaving the Singapore Dollar in a consolidative state since March 2021.

USD/SGD Daily Chart

USD/SGD Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

Thai Baht Technical Outlook - Neutral

The US Dollar has fared slightly better against the Thai Baht than the Singapore Dollar. A rising trendline from the beginning of 2021 continues to uphold USD/THB’s dominant uptrend. Prices are once again testing the trendline, with immediate support at 33.134. A breakout lower exposes the 32.974 inflection point as well as the 200-day SMA. Adhering to the trendline opens the door to more consolidation since July 2021, placing the focus on key resistance which seems to be the 33.861 – 34.000 zone.

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USD/THB Daily Chart

USD/THB Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

Indonesian Rupiah Technical Outlook - Neutral

The US Dollar remains in a broadly consolidative setting against the Indonesian Rupiah. USD/IDR recently turned lower after testing a falling trendline from April. That has left the pair facing a potential near-term rising support line from October. Clearing the latter exposes the 14190 – 14223 inflection zone. Subsequently closing under this range then exposes the October low at 14075. On the other hand, taking out the falling trendline could open the door to a material turn higher, placing the focus on the December high at 14438. Above the latter sits the 14465 inflection point.

USD/IDR Daily Chart

USD/IDR Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

Philippine Peso Technical Outlook - Neutral

The US Dollar remains in a near-term uptrend against the Philippine Peso. Zooming out however, USD/PHP remains in a consolidative setting since July 2021. Prices struggled to pierce through the 51.442 – 51.095 resistance zone, leaving behind a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. A further downside close may confirm the pattern, opening the door to a turn lower. That may then place the focus on the 200-day SMA down the road. On the flip side, taking out resistance exposes the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 51.7339.

USD/PHP Daily Chart

USD/PHP Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

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