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US Dollar Downtrend Fizzling? USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP, USD/IDR

US Dollar Downtrend Fizzling? USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP, USD/IDR

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

US Dollar, USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP, USD/IDR – ASEAN Technical Analysis

  • US Dollar is attempting to recover, is the downtrend fizzling?
  • USD/SGD still biased lower, USD/THB making a bolder push
  • USD/PHP Descending Triangle eyed, USD/IDR finds support
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Singapore Dollar Technical Outlook

The US Dollar may be attempting to push for a comeback against the Singapore Dollar, but the road ahead remains tough. USD/SGD recently formed a Doji candlestick within the downtrend since late August. There was some upside follow-through after, but two key technical signals are favoring the downside. The first is a bearish Double Top chart formation after prices broke under the 1.3502 – 1.3474 neckline.

Now, a bearish crossover between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages are underscoring the downside bias. Resuming the downtrend may see prices aim towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3382. On the other hand, climbing back above the neckline of the Double Top could be a hint that USD/SGD may resume the uptrend that followed June’s bottom.

USD/SGD Daily Chart

USD/SGD Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

Thai Baht Technical Outlook

The US Dollar is also attempting to resume its upside momentum against the Thai Baht. On the daily chart below, USD/THB bounced off the midpoint of the Fibonacci retracement at 32.26 after topping in August. This has brought the pair back to the 50-day SMA, which seems to be playing out as immediate resistance. The 20-day line is looking like it will cross under the former, creating a bearish Death Cross.

A turn back lower from here could be a sign that August’s top may resume. Such an outcome may see prices decline towards a potential rising trendline from February. That could reinstate the broad upside focus. Otherwise, pushing above the SMAs could see the pair set course to attempt revisiting current 2021 peaks. That would be in line with the uptrend since February, which remains intact.

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USD/THB Daily Chart

USD/THB Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

Philippine Peso Technical Outlook

The US Dollar is attempting to regain its footing against the Philippine Peso. USD/PHP recently bounced off the key 49.57 – 49.84 support zone, opening the door for a Descending Triangle formation on the daily chart below. Further gains from here may place the focus on the ceiling of the triangle, which may play out as key resistance, pivoting the pair lower.

Clearing above the Descending Triangle may hint at broader gains to come down the road, placing the focus on current 2021 peaks. Otherwise, falling under the floor of the triangle may open the door to reversing the uptrend from June through July. That would bring the 100-day SMA closer into focus. It could reinstate the broader focus to the upside.

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USD/PHP Daily Chart

USD/PHP Daily Chart

Chart Created on the IG Trading Platform

Indonesian Rupiah Technical Outlook

The US Dollar remains lower against the Indonesian Rupiah since last week. That is when USD/IDR broke under rising support from February, shifting the outlook to an increasingly neutral setting. A bearish crossover between the 20- and 50-day SMAs does underscore the near-term technical bias to the downside. Key support seems to be the May low at 14195.

Falling under the former exposes current 2021 lows, which make for a wide range of support between 13872 and 14012 on the daily chart below. Otherwise, pushing higher from here could see the pair resume its broader consolidation since the end of last year. The former rising trendline may come back as new resistance, making it difficult for the pair to find material upside momentum.

USD/IDR Daily Chart

USD/IDR Daily Chart

Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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