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Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook for the Week Ahead

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook for the Week Ahead

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Technical Analysis – Week Ahead

  • Dow Jones upside momentum continues to fade as uptrend slows
  • S&P 500 futures trading within the boundaries of a Rising Wedge
  • Nasdaq 100 uptrend remains in play looking at key moving averages

Dow Jones Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones continues to consolidate just under the all-time high set on August 16th at 35547. Momentum seems to be considerably slowing in the context of the near-term uptrend from late June, as anticipated from my last technical look at the 3 US major benchmark stock indices. The broader ascent since last year continues to remain in play, however.

A bearish Rising Wedge chart formation seems to be in play. While the outlook may be bullish within the boundaries of the wedge, a breakout to the downside risks opening the door to a material pullback. Such an outcome may place the focus on the 200-day Simple Moving Average. Otherwise, uptrend resumption would expose the 38.2% Fibonacci extension at 36357.

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook for the Week Ahead

Chart Created in TradingView

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

S&P 500 futures also remain in an uptrend, though upside momentum continues to slow. This is depicted via negative RSI divergence on the daily chart below. That can at times precede a turn lower. A neutral Doji candlestick pattern was left behind on the September 3rd close. This is a sign of indecision, which can at times precede a turn lower within an uptrend.

Still, without downside follow-through, the Doji may pass without much noise. The S&P does find itself at the ceiling of a bearish Rising Wedge as well. This could precede a decline towards the floor of the wedge, where the broader uptrend could come back into play. The 100% Fibonacci extension at 4611 is fast approaching, with the 123.6% point above at 4748.

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook for the Week Ahead

Chart Created in TradingView

Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis

Nasdaq 100 futures recently closed at an all-time high, resuming the broader uptrend since last year’s bottom. Here, negative RSI divergence is also present, showing that upside momentum is fading. The near-term 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages remain pointed higher though. From here, the index could fall as much as 4.3% before touching the latter.

As such, there may be enough room for near-term correction before the broader trend resumes higher. In the event of a material turn lower, 14710 may come into play as a key support point, which was the August low. Beyond that is the July 19th low at 14445. Otherwise, uptrend resumption has the 61.8% Fibonacci extension eyed at 15731. Above that is the 78.6% level at 16080.

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook for the Week Ahead

Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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