British Pound Commodity Crosses, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD - Talking Points
- The British Pound is mixed but a move could be around the corner
- GBP/AUD has pulled back after a run higher,. can the uptrend persist?
- A range-bound GBP/CAD lies in wait toward the upper end of the band
GBP/AUD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The GBP/AUD made a multi-year low at 1.7416 in January and formed an Ascending Channel from there. As momentum gathered, it pushed through the top of the channel and not long after, broke up through the previous high of 1.8527. This level has now become a support point as it has not traded below that level since. The cross tested the level last Friday with a low of 1.8536 but it has rallied since.
Below that, the 100-day moving average is at 1.8135 and then a previous low at 1.8262 may provide some support that lies just above the rising trendline.
On the topside there is a break-down point that could offer resistance at 1.8758, and then the 21-day moving average might see some sellers at 1.8831. Another break-down pivot point of potential resistance is at 1.8972. GBP/AUD’s high for the year at 1.9154 may also offer resistance.
GBP/CAD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
GBP/CAD is clearly in range-trading mode as illustrated in the chart below. The Bollinger Bonds highlight this sideways pattern and we can observe the collapse in volatility in the third quarter of 2020. Here we are looking at the 2 standard deviation Bollinger Bands based off the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
Potentially, there might be some technical signals that could suggest a near-term test of the upper bound of the Bollinger Band. Since making the high of 1.7888 in February, there have been 2 falling trendlines that have been broken. At the same time, the rising trendline from the May low of 1.6871 has remained intact.
Sitting just below the current price is the 200-day SMA at 1.7305 and the 100-day SMA at 1.7226 that may provide some support. Below that, the rising trend lies near 1.7200.
On the topside, the most recent high sits just under upper bound of the Bollinger Band at 1.7626.
--- Written by Daniel McCarthy, Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @DanMcCathyFX on Twitter
