Canadian Dollar Road Ahead Remains Bleak: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, AUD/CAD, EUR/CAD
Canadian Dollar, USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD – Technical Analysis
- Canadian Dollar remains at risk to most of its major peers
- USD/CAD ready to resume higher, CAD/JPY to push lower?
- AUD/CAD downtrend still holds, EUR/CAD eyes key SMA
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The Canadian Dollar be may increasingly at risk of depreciating further against the US Dollar. USD/CAD has closed above the key 1.2748 – 1.2808 resistance zone, marking the highest point since February. Still, confirmation is lacking and negative RSI divergence is present. The latter shows that upside momentum is fading, which can at times precede a turn lower. On the other hand, a bullish crossover between the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages offers an upside bias, placing the focus on the January high and beyond.
A bearish Head and Shoulders may be on the verge of playing out in CAD/JPY. The Canadian Dollar recently rejected the 87.97 – 88.30 resistance zone, dropping to the neckline of the chart pattern after establishing the right shoulder. A breakout under the 85.41 – 85.82 support zone, with confirmation, could open the door for the pair to extend losses towards the implied target of the Head and Shoulders – see chart below. Still, the 200-day SMA still remains in play, which could reinstate the dominant upside focus.
The Canadian Dollar seems to be in a more favorable position against the Australian Dollar. AUD/CAD remains in a dominant downtrend since February, guided lower by falling resistance – see chart below. Prices recently took out the pivotal 0.9294 – 0.9248 support zone and have since established a new range below at 0.9120 – 0.9146. Positive RSI divergence is present, which may precede a turn higher. Still, even a breakout above resistance exposes the 100-day SMA. The latter may reinstate the dominant downside focus.
The Canadian Dollar’s stance against the Euro seems relatively more neutral. EUR/CAD remains above falling resistance from the end of last year but has struggled to set higher highs as of late. That is where the 200-day SMA may come into focus. Keep a close eye on this line in the event prices attempt to push higher again. A breakout above the SMA could open the door to a material turn higher in the pair, reversing losses since the beginning of this year. Downtrend resumption entails a close under the 1.4631 – 1.4583 support zone.
--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.