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Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: Broader Outlook Bearish, USD/JPY Eyes Key Trendline

Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: Broader Outlook Bearish, USD/JPY Eyes Key Trendline

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Majors-Based Japanese Yen Index, USD/JPY – Technical Outlook

  • Majors-based Japanese Yen index closed under key support, hinting at losses
  • However, confirmation remains key, especially as momentum appears fading
  • USD/JPY dominant upside focus holding despite March’s top, eyes on support

The Japanese Yen may be vulnerable to broader selling pressure. Below is a majors-based JPY index that averages the currency’s performance against the US Dollar, Australian Dollar, British Pound and Euro. The index has been in a downtrend since late October 2020. However, downside momentum has been notably slowing as of late. Positive RSI divergence reinforces this, which can at times precede a turn higher.

With that in mind, the index has closed under lows from April 2018, exposing lows from the same year. That said, the breakout could use more confirmation. A Doji candlestick was left behind, a sign of indecision. A subsequent upside close could pave the way for a near-term upside push. That would then place the focus on key falling resistance from last year. The latter could then reinstate the dominant downside focus.

Majors-Based Japanese Yen Index Daily Chart

Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: Broader Outlook Bearish, USD/JPY Eyes Key Trendline

Chart Created in TradingView

So where does this leave USD/JPY from a technical standpoint? Even though the pair topped back in March, rising support from the beginning of this year has remained in play. This means that the broader upside focus remains in play, leaving the Japanese Yen vulnerable to the US Dollar. Prices are testing the trendline once more, a push higher places the focus on June 2020 highs.

That makes for a key inflection zone between 109.38 and 109.85. Above that is the current 2021 peak at 110.96. Immediate support seems to be at 108.33, with the 107.47 – 107.85 range sitting below. Resuming March’s top entails taking out the latter. That is when the 100-day SMA can also come into play, opening the door to reinforcing an upside bias.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: Broader Outlook Bearish, USD/JPY Eyes Key Trendline

Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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