US Dollar Outlook Still Bearish: USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/IDR, USD/PHP
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US Dollar, USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP, USD/IDR – ASEAN Technical Analysis
- US Dollar outlook remains bearish against ASEAN currencies
- USD/SGD eying January lows? USD/THB still appears wobbly
- USD/IDR and USD/PHP facing downside technical warnings
Singapore Dollar Technical Outlook
The US Dollar extended declines against the Singapore Dollar since last week, as anticipated. USD/SGD pierced the 1.3375 – 1.3389 inflection zone, confirming the breakout. Now, the 50-day Simple Moving Averaged could cross above the 20-day, forming a bearish crossover. That may precede further losses, opening the door for the pair to retest the 1.3158 – 1.3189 support zone established earlier this year. In the event of a material turn higher however, keep an eye on what may be a falling trendline from March – see chart below.
USD/SGD Daily Chart
Thai Baht Technical Outlook
The US Dollar managed to recover slightly against the Thai Baht since last week, but the near-term USD/THB technical picture remains bearish. Prices were contained by the 31.336 inflection point and the Shooting Star still remains in play. Still, the 20-day SMA seems to be guiding the pair higher. A breakout under would expose the April 15th low and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 31.0633 on the daily chart below. In the event of a push higher however, keep an eye on what seems to be a falling zone of resistance from July.
USD/THB Daily Chart
Indonesian Rupiah Technical Outlook
The US Dollar could be at risk to the Indonesian Rupiah after USD/IDR fell under a bearish Rising Wedge chart formation. This followed negative RSI divergence, a sign of fading upside momentum. Confirmation of a breakout still seems somewhat lacking, with the 14525 – 14563 inflection zone containing the pair. The 20-day SMA may still keep an upside focus as well. Otherwise, further losses exposes the 50-day SMA followed by former resistance at 14280 which could come into play as new support.
For updates on ASEAN currencies as they break key technical levels, be sure to follow me on Twitter @ddubrovskyFX.
USD/IDR Daily Chart
Philippine Peso Technical Outlook
The US Dollar also may be at risk to the Philippine Peso. USD/PHP is attempting to fall under the 48.35 – 48.40 support zone. Granted, the pair does seem to be struggling to do so. But, a bearish crossover between the 50-day and 20-day SMA warns of a downside bias to come. A drop under 48.25 may open the door to revisiting lows from December, where the 47.67 – 47.86 support zone could come into play. Otherwise, turning higher from here could pave the way to retesting the 48.82 – 48.99 resistance zone.
USD/PHP Daily Chart
--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.