News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.09%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 74.96%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/wxHvel5wMw
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Rosengren Speech due at 17:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-12
  • - Fed will be less preemptive on reacting to inflation - I do think we'll get more inflation this year
  • #Gold has continued to step back from the one month high hit around 1,755 last week, dropping to a fresh six day low around the 1,730 level today. $XAU $GLD https://t.co/I3qpQ1k7MR
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.54% Gold: -0.69% Silver: -1.79% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/oC1w9BWJTn
  • - Hopeful that the economy can switch to high-productivity growth after the pandemic - Appetite for holding liquid government debts is insatiable and this trend does not look to be reversing
  • USD/CAD attempts to retrace the decline following the update to Canada’s Employment report in an effort to retain the opening range for April. Get your $USDCSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/TZ7s4X1VXF https://t.co/aqycOmCINp
  • - Will defer to Chair Powell to begin tapering discussion - We remain on the lookout for financial stability risks - Improved regulatory frameworks put in place since the financial crisis have helped mitigate these risks
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: 0.26% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.23% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.23% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.01% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.03% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.22% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/LXnEJybdjH
  • - Pandemic has not yet come to a close in the US - Still too early to talk about changing monetary policy - Want to maintain easy policy while we're still in the pandemic
DAX 30, FTSE 100, CAC 40 Forecast: Rising Long Bets Leave European Stocks at Risk

DAX 30, FTSE 100, CAC 40 Forecast: Rising Long Bets Leave European Stocks at Risk

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

DAX 30, FTSE 100, CAC 40, Technical Analysis, Retail Trader Positioning - Talking Points

  • Retail traders increasing upside exposure into European stocks
  • The DAX 30, FTSE 100 and CAC 40 may be vulnerable to losses
  • IG Client Sentiment (IGCS) is typically a contrarian indicator
How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
Recommended by Daniel Dubrovsky
How is IG Client Sentiment a contrarian indicator?
Get My Guide

Recent jitters in global equity markets are fueling rising long positioning bets into stocks from retail investors, opening the door to further losses. These include European ones, like the DAX 30, FTSE 100 and CAC 40. This can be demonstrated by using IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), a gauge of retail investor positioning.

IGCS is typically a contrarian indicator, meaning that if upside exposure is increasing in an asset, prices could be vulnerable to a pullback and vice versa. For a further analysis of this tool, where I also demonstrate how you can use it in a trading strategy, check out a recording of a recent webinar I hosted here.

DAX 30 Sentiment Outlook - Bearish

The IGCS gauge implies that about 25% of retail traders are net long the DAX 30. Upside exposure has climbed by 15.59% and 45.49% over a daily and weekly basis respectively. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain netshort.

DAX 30, FTSE 100, CAC 40 Forecast: Rising Long Bets Leave European Stocks at Risk

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, further losses in the DAX 30 could see prices test the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The latter is hovering around the 38.2% Fibonacci extension at 14332, making for a key point of support. Down the road, rising support from November may reinstate the dominant upside focus.

DAX 30 Daily Chart

DAX 30, FTSE 100, CAC 40 Forecast: Rising Long Bets Leave European Stocks at Risk

Chart Created in Trading View

FTSE 100 Sentiment Outlook - Bearish

The IGCS gauge implies that about 71% of retail investors are net long the FTSE 100. Upside exposure is on the rise, increasing by 5.68% and 29.10% over a daily and weekly basis respectively. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes offers a stronger bearish contrarian trading bias.

DAX 30, FTSE 100, CAC 40 Forecast: Rising Long Bets Leave European Stocks at Risk

Technical Analysis

While the FTSE 100 may be at risk of losses in the near-term, rising support from November could reinstate the upside focus – see chart below. However, breaching this range could open the door to deeper losses. Otherwise, resuming the uptrend entails clearing the 6879 – 6964 resistance zone.

Top Trading Opportunities in 2021
Top Trading Opportunities in 2021
Recommended by Daniel Dubrovsky
What are the top trading opportunities in 2021?
Get My Guide

FTSE 100 Daily Chart

DAX 30, FTSE 100, CAC 40 Forecast: Rising Long Bets Leave European Stocks at Risk

Chart Created in Trading View

CAC 40 Sentiment Outlook - Bearish

The IGCS gauge implies that about 40% of retail traders are net long the CAC 40. Upside bets have increased by 10.65% and 44.62% over a daily and weekly basis respectively. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain netshort.

DAX 30, FTSE 100, CAC 40 Forecast: Rising Long Bets Leave European Stocks at Risk

Technical Analysis

The CAC 40 could be at risk of reversing gains since November should prices manage to confirm a break under a bearish Rising Wedge chart pattern. Such an outcome may place the focus on the 50-day SMA below as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci extension at 5841. Key resistance seems to be the 6065 – 6109 zone.

CAC 40 Daily Chart

DAX 30, FTSE 100, CAC 40 Forecast: Rising Long Bets Leave European Stocks at Risk

Chart Created in Trading View

*IG Client Sentiment Charts and Positioning Data Used from March 23rd Report

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES